Summary Of Sydney Skaggs - 1727 Words

Sydney Skaggs Chapter One It’s well into the hours of the morning when my phone beeps, signifying he has texted me.The noise echos off of the walls, my headboard, it bounces off of everything before finally resting beneath the sheets with me. The air silences, and I swipe my finger across my phone screen already knowing what the text message says. Come over I ponder ignoring the two worded text, but even though it’s only two words it says enough to have my head swimming with thoughts. I can hear the rain outside, a so called spring shower, but it’s drenched the grounds of the earth so much that it couldn’t possibly even be considered that. I swing my legs over the edge of my bed as a roar of thunder echoes in the distance. My feet hit the†¦show more content†¦As I step out of my apartment and close the door behind me, my phone buzzes again. Hurry up. Im tempted to silence my phone, his impatience starting to wear thin on me. I know he’s an impatient person, i just figured i would be used to it by now. However though, after five months the only thing i’m used to is those late night come over texts and the feel of his hands upon my skin. I know that I should feel used, even neglected, but all I feel right now is wanted. As I step outside I realize that the temperature has significantly dropped and the rain has begun to come down even more vigorously than before. By the time I finally make it to his building, I’m soaked to the bone and I’m shivering from the below freezing temperatures. He buzzes me in immediately, impatiently.I don’t immediately knock when I reach his door, rather I loiter around a little bit. I wonder if I should just leave before he ruins me even more or before we ultimately self-destruct. I feel like leaving would be the best option, but yet I hesitate to leave. The decision is made for me when the door swings open, colliding with the wall behind it. â€Å"About damn time.† He grunts out, ushering me inside. Despite the warmth his place holds, i’m still shivering. He hugs me to his side, and despite my soggy clothes he’s still completely dry. He reaches for my soggy t shirt and only manages to get it above my navel before I push his hands

The BCS system versus the playoff system Free Essays

The NCAA division 1-A football is different from the rest of the sports in that it uses the BCS system to determine its champions instead of the normal playoff system. The BCS includes a polling system to determine the two best teams in the country, who then play against each other at a bowl game and the team that wins becomes the overall national champion. It has been said to be a very complicated formula and less preferred than the play off system. We will write a custom essay sample on The BCS system versus the playoff system or any similar topic only for you Order Now Supporters of the adoption of a playoff system in the ongoing debate argue that the BCS system is making the football fans to miss the high level of excitement that is normally there in other tournaments. Others say that the true champion can only be determined in the field, so the BCS system should be denounced. This is a well put phrase, in that out of the possible 28 games, only one game counts. If a play off system was adopted, then the fans would have 16 team playoff matches to watch, which is obviously much more exciting compared to watching just one determining game. (Bruce Varnadore, Will College football ever have a playoff? ) The BCS system was modified in 2004 and some champion determinants such as the records set by the team, how strong their schedule is and numbers of their wins were eliminated. The new system then included polling, where the coaches and the Associated Press writers were required to vote in order to determine the champions. This means that the voter’s influence on who the champions should be in the current system is two-thirds, compared to that of the old system which was only a quarter, which makes the situation even worse than before. (James Alder, About. com). The National Council of Athletic Association should adopt the playoff instead of the BCS system that is still in use. It does not seem to understand that the best and most legitimate manner that a champion can be crowned is through establishing a playoff system. They may say that the BCS is a far much better way to look for a champion among American colleges, but the truth of the matter is that it is not. I believe that a champion should defend his title at the pitch through the action he shows, not by being voted in. This would not only create a lot of excitement for the fans, but it would also give more meaning and gusto to the beginning of the year. Arguments for the playoff. The playoff system would generate as much money as the BSC system. The estimated cash in flows are estimated to be between three to four hundred million dollars, and if this money was distributed fairly among all division 1-A schools, then each school could get approximately 2. 5 million dollars every season. (Bruce Varnadore, will college football ever have a playoff? ) Deserving teams that have good players and who’ve got game are denied the chance to be in the competition for the national championship title. Such teams as the BYU, a non conference team, are not given an equal chance and are therefore left out. This is not only a waste of talent, but is also shows unfairness. The playoff system would establish who the champion is through a one on one competition among all the teams. This is the much preferred bowl among many football fans. A recent opinion poll showed that most people prefer the playoff system than the BSC system. The results were such that 82 percent of the respondents would love to see a change in the current bowl games system, BSC to a playoff. The playoff system has also been favored because it would at least minimize the doubts concerning who the national champions should be even if it would not completely eliminate them. The play off system would work out just as fine as it does in the other season’s games. Those in favor of the BSC system have said that the playoff would take a longer season and student players would not have enough time to concentrate on their academic work. However, this is not true because the division 1-AA applies a 16 team playoff system, and most times finishes ten days to the New Year, much earlier than the division 1-A games. It would also be much easier to implement the aforementioned system just as the NCAA implemented the BSC system. Arguments against the BSC system. Firstly, the basis on which a national champion is selected is unfair because it is based on statistics of people’s preference and personal opinion instead on the performance in the pitch. Secondly, there have always been controversies on who the real winner should have been had the game not been judged on the polls, but on action performance. Thirdly, just a single off game can cause the team to be eliminated from the championship contention, and finally, the minor non-BSC conference teams are often disadvantaged because they never get the chance to contend at the championship games. These are just but a few of the many shortcomings of the BSC system that make the fans of the game wonder why the NCAA won’t just adopt the playoff system. (James Alder, About. com). I think its time that the NCAA woke up, realize that this is the 21st century and bring a lot more excitement to the field. The empty seats at many of the bowl games should be enough indicators to them. Moreover, the idea of â€Å"preserving the culture and the integrity of bowl games† has been labeled as a lame excuse to avoid implementing the playoff system. They need to know that football fans deserve the kind of action there used to be just a few years ago, from Rose, Sugar and Gator to the big games at Orange bowl. (Gilbert Don, College bowls on road to nowhere. ) Works Cited 1) Alder. J. BCS vs. Playoff System, 1/5/2006. About. com, Retrieved 1/15/2009 http://football. about. com/od/bowlchampionship/i/bcsvsplayoffs. htm 2) Gilbert Don, College bowls on road to nowhere, January 4th 2009, HOF blog, Retrieved 1/16/2009: http://blog. hofmag. com/2009/01/04/college-bowls-on-road-to-nowhere/ 3) Varnadore Bruce, will college football ever have a playoff? 2003, College football, Retrieved 1/16/2009: http://iml. jou. ufl. edu/projects/Spring03/Varnadore/index. htm How to cite The BCS system versus the playoff system, Papers

Compare and contrast two main sociological theories of crime and deviance free essay sample

Compare and contrast the two main sociological theories of crime and deviance. Deviance and crime are wide-ranging terms used by sociologists to refer to behavior that varies, in some way, from a social norm. Cultural Norms are societys propensity towards certain ideals; their aversion from others; and their standard, ritualistic practices. Essentially the norm is a summation of typical activities and beliefs of group of people. This essay will evaluate the sociological theories associated with crime and deviance and to compare and contrast these main theories. And find links between these theories to today’s society. There are various Sociological deviance theories, including Structuralist: why do some people break the rules? , Marxists: who makes the rules, and who benefits from their enforcement? , and Interactionist: How did this person become processed (labeled) as a deviant? Sociology asserts that deviance is problematic, yet essential and intrinsic to any conception of Social Order. It is problematic because it disrupts but is essential because it defines the confines of our shared reality. According to sociologist , William Graham Sumner, deviance is a violation of established contextual, cultural, or social norms, whether folkways, mores, or codified law (1906). It can be as minor as picking one’s nose in public or as major as committing murder. Although the word â€Å"deviance† has a negative connotation in everyday language, sociologists recognize that deviance is not necessarily bad (Schoepflin 2011). In fact, from a structural functionalist perspective, one of the positive contributions of deviance is that it fosters social change. For example, during the U.S. civil rights movement, Rosa Parks violated social norms when she refused to move to the ‘black section† of the bus, and the Little Rock Nine broke customs of segregation to attend an Arkansas public school. Crime as cited by Mustapha is any action that breaks the law of the land and is punishable by formal controls (2009). Many theories and explanations have been put forward as to w hat cause crime in society, the Macro –sociological theories of crime and deviance are based on the premise that they arise from society’s social structure or organization . Taking the functionalist view in perspective, this approach based mainly on the work of Durkheim, argues that deviant and criminal behaviour plays an active, constructive role in society by ultimately helping to cohere different populations within a particular society. Durkheim postulated that a certain amount of crime and deviance as normal and an integral part of all healthy societies. (Haralambos and Holburn,2008). This is because it acts as a ‘safety valve’, providing a relatively harmless way for someone to express their discontent. For example, Cohen said that â€Å"prostitution performs such a safety valve function without threatening the institution of the family†, this is because he believed this crime of prostitution could relieve the stress in a discrete way without damaging the rest of the clients life. Clinard believed that crime also served the function of acting as a  warning device. This is because the crime indicates that there is an aspect of society that is malfunctioning. So the crime draws attention to the problem within society, which can then be fixed. Durkheim stated that crime in society isn’t genetically produced, but is natural in society. However, he did say that too much crime was dangerous in a society. The functionalist continue to say that deviance and helps to distinguish between acceptable and unacceptable behaviour. It draws lines and demarcates  boundaries. This is an important function that affirms the cultural values and norms of a society for the members of that society. In addition to clarifying the moral boundaries of society, deviant behaviour can also promote social unity by creating an â€Å"us-versus-them† mentality in relation to deviant individuals. Finally, deviance and crime is actually seen as one means for society to change over time. Deviant behaviour can imbalance the social  equilibrium  but—in the process of restoring balance—society will adjust norms. With changing norms in response to deviance, the deviant behaviour can contribute to long-term social stability. This provides the key to understanding the  disruption  and recalibration of society that occurs over time. Some traits that could cause social disruption will be  stigmatized. As traits become more mainstreamed, society will gradually adjust to incorporate the formerly stigmatized traits. Take, for example,  homosexuality. In urban America 50 years ago, homosexual behaviour was considered deviant. On the one hand, this fractured society into those marked as homosexuals and those unmarked as normative heterosexuals. While this us-versus-them mentality solidified social  identities  and solidarities within the two categories, there was nevertheless an overarching social schism. As time went on, homosexuality came to be accepted as more  mainstream. To confirm an article entitled â€Å"Most say homosexuality should be accepted by society† reveals that among the findings from the latest  Pew Research Center political typology survey, released May The survey conducted ,stated that while the public is divided over same-sex marriage, a majority of Americans (58%) say that homosexuality should be accepted, rather than discouraged, by society. Among younger people in particular, there is broad support for societal acceptance of homosexuality. More than six-in-ten (63%) of those younger than 50 – 69% of those younger than 30 – say that homosexuality should be accepted. Far fewer of those 50 and older (52%) favour societal acceptance of homosexuality. On this note, Merton developed on Durkheim’s point that too much crime is dangerous to society . Merton observed American culture. He said that this society bought into the ‘American dream’ of having a successful career with lots of money, material possessions and a nice family. Merton said that in a balanced society everyone will be happy, however, he said American society isn’t balanced, so when people struggle to live up to societies norms and values they try and find other ways of achieving this success, and act normlessly. Merton called this a strain to anomie, and it is this normless behaviour which he said caused crime in society. Merton said there are five ways in which members of American society could respond to this strain to anomie: Conformiity, Innovation, Ritvaiailism, Retreatism, Rebellion. Merton believed the pressure exerted on people to succeed, a strain to anomie, meant that if they didn’t they would act normlessly to cope, and this could manifest itself in any of the 5 ways mentioned above. There are weaknesses mentioned to the functionalist perspective as   critics say they exaggerates working class crimes and ignores white-collar crimes committed by the wealthy in society.  ­The biggest criticism of Merton’s work is that it doesn’t explain why people commit crimes that can’t be explained by a strain to anomie. For example freedom fighters who act criminally because of commitment rather than the effects of anomie. However, evidence shows that after communist countries moved to free market economies (which stress the importance of individual material success) crime rates have rocketed. Similarly, as the UK moved to Thatcherism (which again places more value on material success and hard work) crime rates increased. This suggests that the strain to achieve what society considers ‘success’ can lead to crime, so it supports Merton’s view. However the Marxist perspective has a different view to this, they believe that the capitalist system is responsible for creating crime to protect their interest by reducing strains inherent in the capitalist mode of production, while the functionalist believe that crime and deviance establishes the moral boundaries of the community. Marxist theory suggests that deviant behaviours result from social, political, or material inequalities of a social group. In response to these inequalities, certain groups will act defiantly in order to change their circumstances, change the social structure that engendered their circumstances, or just to â€Å"act out† against their oppressors. An example of conflict theory would be the Occupy Wall Street movement that began in the fall of 2011. Angered at the extreme inequalities in wealth distribution in the United States, protesters began to organize more communal ways of living in Zucotti Park—near Wall Street in New York City—in order to protest the lavish means of life of those at the top of the socioeconomic ladder. The protesters were deviating from social norms of coherence in order to articulate  grievances  against the extremely wealthy. Their actions and perspectives demonstrate the use of conflict theory to explain social deviance. So the ruling class as cited by Mustapha(2009) is keen on maintaining the status quo, that is the norms and values of capitalist society (ideology). The â€Å"soft edge† of control is ideology- the â€Å"hard edge† is the police, the armed forces, the courts and prisons. To concretize an article entitled â€Å"Youth Curfew†, where Commanding officer for the Kingston Western police division in Jamaica, Senior Superintendent Steve McGregor, has disclosed there is to be a curfew for children in the West Kingston community. Under this measure children will not be allowed to be on the streets after 9 o’clock at night. The Marxist would view this as the ruling class way of enforcing their power over the lower class in relation to this planned curfew . Functionalist on the other hand might view this as a natural state as the social order in society is reinforced by law and collective conscience. As the article mentioned that with the aid of community members who are on board with the idea of this curfew will aid the police in curbing gang violence in the division. To conclude, the ideas brought forward b both functionalist and Marxist aid in giving light to the many concerns that revolve around crime and deviance and to open understanding of this. While both theories had their own interpretation of crime and deviance and proved to be applicable to society, there were limitations certain issues that both theories failed to mention. They are nevertheless both important having a greater appreciation of crime and deviance.

Synthesis Paper on Rap Music free essay sample

Music on Teenagers I strongly believe that you need to give your children the freedom to make their own choices in the paths they take in their lives. If you dont they might rebel and make poor choices that can lead to a poor lifestyle. Although you do have to step in every once in a while but I believe you need to make these interferences in their lives a very rare occasion. For instance when it comes to negative rap music and their videos; I believe a parent needs to step in and explain to the child why they shouldnt attach this type of music video or listen to this type of music.And also shield the child to the best of their power. According to the article The Impact of Rap and Hip-Hop Music on American Youth written by abjection; Rap music has a negative effect on Americas youth. We will write a custom essay sample on Synthesis Paper on Rap Music or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page In the article abjection talks about a study done which they took 700; 15 year olds and one third of them listened to sexually explicit rap music and two thirds listened to degrading music about sex. Each child was asked about their sexual thoughts after listening to the music and almost all of them had degrading Houghton about sex.Rap music videos also have an impact on sexual ideas young teens have about the opposite sex according to the article written by Sarah Hopkins called The Negative impact of music videos. Sexy dancing moves and sexy styles are catching the attention of young teenage girls and these young girls are then imitating these dance moves and the sexy way to dress and are sending the wrong message to young teenage boys. It doesnt take much for these young teenage boys with their high hormone levels to get sexually explicit ideas in their heads.Some of these naggers act on these Ideas which lead to premarital sex and can lead to diseases and infections. In the artic le Rap Musics psychological effects by Jennifer Copley she states that In a study teenage boys who listened to or read rap music with sexually explicit lyrics were more openly to express their adversarial sexual beliefs. Another study found that young women who watched a rap video with a woman in a sexual subordinate role were more likely to accept violence in their dating relationship. Rap artists usually also rap about drugs and alcohol.Abjection said if it is a drug the adolescent has not heard of they may become curious and try it. He also states how many rap artist become advertisers of alcohol and teenagers who looks up to these rappers see them endorsing this beverage and think it is cool so they may become more susceptible to start drinking. Copley believes that although after starting to listen and view rap videos there is a rise in adolescent drug and alcohol abuse; that the problem starts before the rap music Is Introduced Into the childs life.This shows Copley that the music doesnt influence the drugs and alcohol. Rap lyrics that talk about violence can be a trigger for young adolescents to become violent. Abjection believes that the violent lyrics rap music holds can be a gateway for teens to start fighting, stealing, or even kill. A lot of adolescents who live see violence in their daily lives; and hearing the violent lyrics may make them act out violently. Copley believes more so that it isnt the lyrics but the violent music videos which cause teenagers to act out violently.The videos cause the teenagers to act out violently especially among women. They also cause teenagers to idealize materialistic hinges and when they dont have the money to buy them they usually go out and steal and some of those crimes they will use violence. An example would be using a gun or a knife to commit the crime. Hopkins also agrees that the lyrics and the videos instill the power of violence in young impressionable minds. Hopkins has a couple examples from people who have done experiments with the effect of violent lyrics on young minds and each study came up with different theories.One said there wasnt enough evidence to link it, another one said there is enough evidence, and the there felt like the lyrics combined with outside factors can lead to violent actions. According to Copley there has been a study that proves that rap music lowers a students academics. But there was also another study done showing that white students who watched rap music videos were getting better grades academically and also showed that they were more willing to accept a black liberal as a politician.Hopkins believes that the rap videos can interfere with academics because sometimes the students start almost becoming obsessed with the videos and the sic and start slipping in their school work. Also they may start to act out the violence in the videos which can lead to missing school. Abjection didnt say anything about the effects on academics with teenagers who listen to or watch rap videos; but he did state teenagers who listen to rap are more prone to using slang words in their daily lives. He believes the reason for this is they here the slang in the rap songs and the teenagers look up to those rap artists; so therefore they start using the slang in their daily lives. The problem with them using the slang all the time is hey start forgetting what is grammatically correct and start not Just talking like it but writing in slang. In a way it shows that it can affect their academics. Copley states that there has been a study to prove that listening to rap has not been linked to suicidal ideation, anxiety, or affect a persons self-esteem.But oddly listening to non-violent rap songs showed an increase in depression symptoms. Abjection believes that rap music does put negative thoughts in a adolescents head and may cause depressive thoughts and suicidal thoughts. Abjection thinks that retainer low income African American males who may have access to guns may be more at risk for the suicidal thoughts or suicidal attempts which can all be tied back to listening to rap and watch ing violent rap videos. According to Hopkins there has been correlation with teenagers watching these rap videos and then very shortly after they commit suicide; but the music is not usually the culprit according to Hopkins. It usually has other factors like despair and if a teenager is accessible to guns or has issues with drug abuse. But Hopkins also agrees that the music videos an show young men and women in perfect shape which can lead to body issues.The issues they can cause are issues such as, anorexia or bulimia which can lead to no self-worth or respect which can lead to suicidal thoughts or suicidal attempts. All of these writers agree that rap can also be used for positive things. Abjection believes that rap artists that use nonviolent lyrics and who rap about positive things that more rap artists should rap about more positive things so the kids do have a more positive role model. Abjection also believes they dont need to use so much Lang, violence, sexual innuendoes, or vulgar language. According to Copley it isnt so much the lyrics that give a negative impact on the young kids but the violent and sexually vulgar material the music videos hold. She believes that if they Just stop making the music videos then there wouldnt be a problem with rap music anymore. Hopkins believes that although rap music videos have their positive attributes and can be educational she has a hard time finding the positives in the rap music. And Hopkins believes that the negatives outweigh the positives. I believe that rap artists are to blame and not the music.The artist should not be trying to sell the vulgar stuff to the youth of our country. It is some of the cause for the violence, sexually crazed teenagers, body image problems, and drug and alcohol use in the youth of America. Overall I believe that the artist should still be able to make that kind of music Just not try to sell it to young teenagers. They should sell things that can educate our kids on the right choices they can make in their life and not always focus on the negative. Maybe Just maybe a rap artist can be a positive role model.

Plane That Crashed Into the Empire State Building

Plane That Crashed Into the Empire State Building On the foggy morning of Saturday, July 28, 1945, Lt. Colonel William Smith was piloting a U.S. Army B-25 bomber through New York City when he crashed into the Empire State Building  at 9:45 a.m, killing 14 people. Fog Lt. Colonel William Smith  was on his way to Newark Airport to pick up his commanding officer, but for some reason, he showed up over LaGuardia Airport and asked for a weather report. Because of the poor visibility, the LaGuardia tower wanted him to land, but Smith requested and received permission from the military to continue on to Newark. The last transmission from the LaGuardia tower to the plane was a foreboding warning: From where Im sitting, I cant see the top of the Empire State Building. Avoiding Skyscrapers Confronted with dense fog, Smith dropped the bomber low to regain visibility, where he found himself in the middle of Manhattan, surrounded by skyscrapers. At first, the bomber was headed directly for the New York Central Building (now called the Helmsley Building) but at the last minute, Smith was able to bank west and miss it. Unfortunately, this put him in line for another skyscraper. Smith managed to miss several skyscrapers until he was headed for the Empire State Building. At the last minute, Smith tried to get the bomber to climb and twist away, but it was too late. The Crash At 9:49 a.m., the ten-ton, B-25 bomber smashed into the north side of the Empire State Building. The majority of the plane hit the 79th floor, creating a hole in the building 18 feet wide and 20 feet high. The planes high-octane fuel exploded, hurtling flames down the side of the building and inside through hallways and stairwells all the way down to the 75th floor. World War II had caused many to shift to a six-day work week; thus there were many people at work in the Empire State Building that Saturday. The plane crashed into the offices of the War Relief Services of the National Catholic Welfare Conference. Catherine OConnor described the crash: The plane exploded within the building. There were five or six seconds- I was tottering on my feet trying to keep my balance- and three-quarters of the office was instantaneously consumed in this sheet of flame. One man was standing inside the flame. I could see him. It was a co-worker, Joe Fountain. His whole body was on fire. I kept calling to him, Come on, Joe; come on, Joe. He walked out of it. Joe Fountain died several days later. Eleven of the office workers were burned to death, some still sitting at their desks, others while trying to run from the flames. Damage From the Crash One of the engines and part of the landing gear hurtled across the 79th floor, through wall partitions and two firewalls, and out the south walls windows to fall onto a 12-story building across 33rd Street. The other engine flew into an elevator shaft and landed on an elevator car. The car began to plummet, slowed somewhat by emergency safety devices. Miraculously, when help arrived at the remains of the elevator car in the basement, the two women inside the car were still alive. Some debris from the crash fell to the streets below, sending pedestrians scurrying for cover, but most fell onto the buildings setbacks on the fifth floor. The bulk of the wreckage, however, remained stuck in the side of the building. After the flames were extinguished and the remains of the victims removed, the rest of the wreckage was removed through the building. Death Toll The plane crash killed 14 people (11 office workers and the three crewmen) plus injured 26 others. Though the integrity of the Empire State Building was not affected, the cost of the damage done by the crash was $1 million. Sources Goldman, Jonathan. The Empire State Building Book. Paperback, St Martins Pr, 1856.Tauranac, John. The Empire State Building: The Making of a Landmark. Paperback, 1 edition, Cornell University Press, March 25, 2014.

Business Research Methods Essay Example for Free

Business Research Methods Essay Starbucks (158) , Research methods (28) company About StudyMoose Contact Careers Help Center Donate a Paper Legal Terms & Conditions Privacy Policy Complaints Starbucks grew as it attracted many people, leading to tripling its stores worldwide. It became part of every neighborhood, appearing on every street, in airports, supermarkets, and roadside rest stops all over America. This is when complaints began to surface that Starbucks is transforming into a fast-food restaurant and not a coffee house. The coffee industry was no longer dominated by Starbucks, for competitors began to put pressure on the business. In addition, the biggest dilemma to hit Starbucks was the 2008 economic crisis. This took a toll on the consumer who saw Starbucks as a luxury and searched for more affordable alternatives. As a result, Starbucks’ management was faced with the need to generate the right management question that would be the thread to making the best decision through its research design. An organizational dilemma can spark a research question. Once an organization determines a situation exists, research methods start to devise and eventually sample designs are implemented. When people think of Starbucks, do they think of great customer service, quality products, clean store, or great coffee? The organizational dilemma is: how should Starbucks go about keeping loyal customers while overcoming the old perceptions and changing with the times. According to Howard Schultz, â€Å"We are not in the coffee business serving people; we are in the people business serving coffee† (Starbucks Board of Directors, 2008). Marius Pretorius (2008) research infers Starbuck’s organizational dilemma, whether strategic or operational is not diminished when using Michael Porter’s (1985) generic strategies for competitive advantage. Declining sales require a turnaround solution that address strategic causes and cost relationship pressures that govern demand determinants. Which are â€Å"highly susceptible to external influences that are not clearly visible to the decision-makers† (Pretorius, 2008, pg. 21). Designing a two-stage exploratory study to identify the basis of distress and the key determinants is essential to a turnaround strategic plan. An exploratory study provides sufficient flexibility to address research costs, timelines, and development of clear constructs to address priorities and operational definitions (Cooper & Schindler, 2011). The first stage of the study will look to ascertain the causation of the organizational dilemma and postulate the asymmetrical relationships in declining sales by examining both internal and external independent and dependent variables. This research will categorize findings into four relationship types as stimulus-response, property-disposition, disposition-behavior, or property-behavior. This will refine the second stage of research and explore influencing factors in depth. Characteristics and Operational Definitions The research design will produce casual inferences upon which a complementary strategy will result. â€Å"Although they may be neither permanent nor universal, these inferences allow us to build knowledge of presumed causes over time† (Cooper & Schindler, 2011, pg. 154). Therefore, it is important to identify moderating or interactive variable dependencies. To ensure data validity operational definitions will challenge data to meet specific standards. These definitions may not exhibit the organization’s use but will establish a means to classify clearly an event. The main concern is to establish actionable information in which contributory or contingent effects on the original independent to dependent variable (IV–DV) relationship will provide empirical conclusions. References Cooper, D.R. & Schindler, P.S. (2011). Business research methods (11th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Porter, M.E., (1985). Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance. New York, NY: The Free Press Pretorius, M., (2008). When Porter’s generic strategies are not enough: Complementary strategies for turnaround situations. Journal of Business Strategy 29(6): 19–28. Starbucks Board of Directors. (2008). Retrieved 2 2013, February, from Starbucks.com: www.starbucks.com/aboutus/environment.asp Starbucks, (2011) Our Company: Mission Statement. We have essays on the following topics that may be of interest to you

Book review Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Book review - Coursework Example Capitalism is based on accumulation of wealth by ignoring the social facets of life; it embeds in us the evils of alienation, bitterness and takes away our compassion for others. With influence of capitalism creeping in our daily lives, we intend to make every social interaction a business transaction or something that can give us value or return. The essential of a worker’s society is obsession with work and the attraction and content one finds in working for corporations is enormous these days. Children who see their parents’ working day in day out witness the financial well being of their family and an assured status in society also get obsessed with it and follow the same path while unemployed men and women also inspire to find work with no real concern for work environment or consequences to social life. The modern worker in this society is in worst situation then in the era of industrialization and Fordism; which at least assured that work would not entrench in li fe and weekend leisure would remain intact. In those times death was feared and work was a means to an end although these days death is not feared but welcomed in comparison to the hell a worker lives in. Hence the fear is of living a life that is not worth living. According to the book, â€Å"Entering the workforce is like entering your grave while you pretend that you are interested in the work you do (Cederstrom & Fleming, 2012)†. Organizations tactfully mixed our lives with our work and strategized new ways to keep us going through the same routine and silently encouraging worker to work all the time. The slogans of ‘be yourself’ and ‘work is fun for us’ or ‘work leisure’ have diluted our identities, deprived us of real fun and leisure, as a result workers are either working or thinking about the work all time. The so called independence at work, motivational activities, parties and team activities brought formalized informality in t o action. While the whole corporation calls for informal practices, the worker who resists or finds these activities uninteresting is considered to be committing a crime. So are workers doing something about this? The authors suggest that the worker is an equal contributor to his demise by accepting such a life and responding to the ever increasing demands from the employer (Cederstrom & Fleming, 2012). A series of blunders were made by the government and later on by the organizations, the first being over reliance and obsession with the capital system which led to the exponential development of the private enterprise. What was initially controlled by government is now in hands of profiteers accumulating for themselves with amount of wealth that was not witnessed before in human history. Individual freedom that was once controlled by the government is now controlled by a more heinous motive, the motive of selfishness along with a hunger for more power and enhanced control. Poverty a n evil in our society is still prevalent and capitalism has not played a role in reducing it, similar to the old days poor are still dependent on governments and private enterprises are only concerned with their own profits and sustainability, cutting back jobs and closing operations on their will without any respect given to the worker or his

HIV and AIDS Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

HIV and AIDS - Essay Example Prior to the 1980’s, medical records have no exact number of the number of deaths resulting from the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. The disease was relatively unknown so the signs and symptoms could not be easily diagnosed. There is uncertainty surrounding the origin of the virus. Scientists now claim that it has possible links with Africa (avert.org, n.d.). The first major report in the United States of America about AIDS came in the form of a report published by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in 1981. In the AIDS Public Information Data for 1981 – 2002 there is a report on the number of cases of the disease as it relates to the different states, location, demographics and HIV exposure group. In the early years of the disease there was a strong belief that it was only prevalent among homosexual males and the possibility of it being transferred to heterosexual partners was low. The July 3, 1981 publication of The New York Times said, â€Å"Dr. Curran said that there was no apparent danger to non homosexuals from contagion. ‘The best evidence against contagion’, he said, ‘is that no cases have been reported to date outside the homosexual community or in women.† Dr. Curran served as Coordinator for the CDC taskforce on Kaposi’s Sarcoma and Opportunistic Infections from 1981 to 1982. This belief, however, proved to be short-lived as there was evidence of the disease spreading to other groups towards the end of 1981. There were reports of the disease among those who had blood transfusions and the passing of the disease from mother to child was also recorded during this period. The disease was given the name Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in 1982 (avert.org, n.d.). By March of 1983 the CDC report included other population groups. According to the report (cdc.gov, 1983) â€Å"persons who may be considered at increased risk of AIDS include those with symptoms and signs suggestive of AIDS; sexual partners of

Hlta Job Description Essay Example for Free

Hlta Job Description Essay

My Personal Philosophy of Education Essay examples -- Philosophy of Te

Philosophy of Education For me, the decision to become a teacher is more of a way of life than a career. I have always loved school, practicing at being school marm from a young age, and voraciously devouring every shred of education offered me in my career as a student. If it were possible, I would be a student for the rest of my life. And then I still would not have learned enough. As a teacher, I hope to instill this appetite for knowledge in secondary students. They are, after all, the future leaders of the world, and what better place to expand the minds of the generations to come than here in Appalachia where education programs, especially the sciences, which I plan to teach, are poorly funded and children’s dreams often fall by the wayside under the weight of everyday life. I don’t want to control the way my students think, but to encourage them to think in ways different than the traditional, to challenge their horizons. As I stated above, I don’t believe that children are being challenged enough. I believe that students rise to meet the reasonable expectations set before them. If a teacher sets the bar a little higher than average and maintains faith in his or her students, then the children will rise to the task and feel better about themselves in the end. One of the most common complaints from students is boredom. Through the philosophies and theories I champion, I hope to combat this attitude. My philosophy is completely idealistic, with elements of pragmatism apparent. I also embrace the theories of experimentalism and progressivism. Teachers should be role models in both the classroom and the community. As an idealist, I truly believe that every single student make... ...orms are going to come and go, and are often necessary, but if teachers become instrumental in their construction, then reforms will be created that will benefit all involved without hampering the ability of teachers to educate their students. Teaching is a noble profession and a journey of lifelong learning. As an educator I will continue to further my own education while doing the same for my students. Biology especially is an ever-changing field, and that is part of the excitement of teaching it to children. There are new and different things discovered every day: things that are wonderful, things that are painful, and things that have a deep impact on the future. This is similar to students: some are truly delightful to work with, others can be a struggle, but ultimately they are all important as people and as the next generation of Americans.

Exhibition Essay

Introduction â€Å"A good exhibition programme will sell itself. The money spent on marketing would be better spent on the exhibition themselves† In the business environment, there is a lot of competition that every business faces in its day to day operations. This means that if a business cannot keep up with the competition or beat its competitors then there is a high likelihood of it collapsing, something that will highly cost the investors. Therefore, every business must ensure that it is able to meet its main objective which in many cases is to make and maximize profits through high sales. To achieve higher or increased sales, business investors can apply various strategies of winning customers and overcoming the stiff competition in the business environment. For a business to be able to accomplish higher or increase in sales and obtain more customers who will in turn result into higher profits for the business, the investors can apply marketing strategy as a form of making their products known to customers which is may be a bit costly t the business since it will have to incur various expenses. On the other hand, a business can opt for exhibition as a form of selling its products to its customers. Exhibition can simply be defined as a presentation and a display of various items that have been selected to attract customers and induce sales. Exhibition Programme as a Marketing tool An exhibition program is the strategy put in place by a business of presenting and displaying a selection of various products of a business for customers to purchase and to attract new customers. Having a good exhibition programme in a business will sell itself to customers and will help increase the sales of the business. This means that the money used by investors in areas such as marketing strategies can be spent on exhibition so that the business can achieve more sales and hence more profits for the business. Exhibitions also know as trade fairs, expos or even trade shows can help achieve various results for a business as will be discussed here. In many occasions, the exhibitions are in most cases organized by various interested parties so that various organizations in a certain specific industry or who have a specific interest can showcase and give a demonstration of the various latest products, study activities, and even services of competitors and also to have a look at the current trends in the business industry and the opportunities that may be available for the business to venture in. There are some exhibitions which are always open to the public while there are others which can only be attended by various company representatives who are members of that trade and also the members of the press for coverage of the exhibition (Siskind, 2005). Through the years exhibitions have been identified as one of the most effective and efficient tool that is powerful and effective for doing business. An exhibition involves the business investors being able to meet the customers face-to-face and hence create a great target opportunity for the business to achieve the various trade objectives that it has. Exhibitions are known to be one of the most cost effective for of reaching out to the customers since the business investor is able to reach the customers at one time and in one place that does not involve moving the location. Therefore, it is notable that exhibitions have various advantages for a business if a good exhibition programme is created and implemented by the business investor (TileagÄÆ', & Cosmescu, 2012). Advantages of Exhibition Exhibition as a means of trade for a business has various advantages to any form of business if created and implemented in a good way as compared to marketing strategies. Discussed below are the advantages that a business will derive from a good exhibition programme implemented by an investor: Customer contact In exhibitions, the business investors have the opportunity of meeting the customers face-to-face in one time and in one place. This means that the trade shows or exhibition provides a very excellent and conducive environment for the business investors to initiate contacts with customers who are new to the business. This helps the business investor to be able to develop new trade leads for the products of the business since the investor is able to answer any questions that the new customers may have concerning the products that the business is offering (Ausstellungs- und Messe-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft, 2010). The business has the first hand opportunity of giving detailed information to the new customers about their products that are under exhibition and in turn this will help in creating a new customer base for the business. In addition to the new customers whom the business investor has the opportunity to win over for the business and creating new customer base, the business investor is also able to renew its old contacts with the valued clients of the company or business firm. There are times when businesses lose their old clients due to various reasons. Through a good exhibition programme, the business investor is bale to renew the lost contacts with its previous customers and also to inform the old customers of the new products that the company may be offering in addition to the improvements that the business has made on the previous products that it was offering (Frain, 1999). Opportunity to create an Image for the Business Through exhibitions, the business investor is able to meet new and old customers some of who may not e familiar with the business. The contact that the business investor has with the customers offers an opportunity for the investor to create and improve the image of the business towards the customers. Customers who had a bad perception about the business will be able to have firsthand experience of knowing more about the business and the products of the investors and get clear understanding of how the business operates and what products the company is offering to its clients (Johnston, & Beaton, 1998). This means that, not only will the company be able to win ore customers but it will be able to give firsthand information to the customers which will help in improving the image of the business. A good image for the business means that customers will want to associate with the business; hence those customers who visit the exhibition will also inform other people about the business. This will act as a way of advertising the business through word of mouth from those customers who had the firsthand experience with the business at the exhibition. Therefore, it is quite notable that exhibitions not only bring new business contacts but also helps to strengthen and maybe restore the image of the business which is important for every business to succeed. Product and service launch platforms Many businesses always face the challenge of launching their products and services to the market. Launching of a new product or service by a company can be very challenging to any business and can also be costly in terms of advertisements as a form of marketing for the new products and services. Many platforms that business investors can use to launch their new products or services are always costly and at times may not be effective in reaching out to as many customers as possible. To overcome this challenge that is involved in the launching of new products or services to the market by business investors, exhibitions offer a much better platform for the business investor to launch their products or services. Exhibitions in many cases involve live presentations and various demonstrations of the products or services of the company to the customers. This means that the products or the services are able to â€Å"speak† for themselves and influence the customers to make purchases or even obtain the services even if they were not prepared to do so in the first place. When customers are able to see for themselves the use of a product or the importance of a product at first hand, they tend to have the urge to try out the product or service so that they can find out if whatever they saw during the live presentations and demonstrations are actually the results that they can obtain from using the particular product or service which has been launched into the market. This means that the process of selling the new products or services is accelerated (Frain, 1999). When the customers are influenced to purchase the new products or services that have been launched at the exhibition trough live presentations and demonstrations, the sales of the products or services are likely to increase, and this will mean that new sales will be generated for the company at a quicker rate than through marketing. Launching of a new product or service through live presentations or demonstrations at the exhibitions means that the company will not incur a lot of costs that are always involved in the launching of new products or services (Johnston, & Beaton, 1998). Marketing communications In the exhibitions or trade fairs, there is always a lot of focus that is always put on the company and the products r services that the company is offering. Many exhibitions involve the media and hence the attention of the media is always on the company and the products or services of the company. This means that the business investor has an opportunity of focusing his/her public relations efforts on raising the profile of the company and that of the products or services of the company. This will also help in improving the image of the company. Since the focus of the media attention is on the company and the products or the services that the company s offering, there is an opportunity for the company to advertise itself without incurring any extra cost on advertisement of the company’s products or services.   The exhibition offers a platform for improvement of the company’s public relations since the company comes into closer contact with the public than it could do through areas such as advertisements. This will also help in improving the image of the company and the image of the products of the company by building trust and good relations with the customers who have visited the exhibition. Therefore, exhibitions will not only help in developing great public relations, building company’s image but also will help in opening new markets for the company (Frain, 1999). A high return/expense ratio Every business investor has one aim in business which they strive to accomplish through every operation that the business undertakes. The main objective for any business investor in a business environment is to make and maximize profits. For the business to obtain profits it must incur costs that are involved in the running of the business. Costs in business may be in form of advertisements, production and any other operational costs for the company. Higher profits and maximization of profits can only be achieved by a business if the business ensures that the costs that it incurs are less and do not exceed their sales. To achieve this, a company must ensure that it employs strategies that will help in minimizing costs involved in its operation while at the same time maximizing its sales for higher profits. The returns must always be higher while the expenses must always be lower in any successful business. This means that a business must always be able to obtain high returns from its sales when compared to the expense that the business has incurred in its operations. Exhibitions help businesses in achieving this objective of higher returns compared to the expenses incurred. The expenses that a business will incur in its operations when conducting exhibitions is less when compared to other forms of marketing such as advertisements. Exhibitions also create an opportunity for higher sales for the business since the company is able to attract more customers through close customer contact, live presentations and demonstrations. Since exhibitions are conducted in one time and in one place, any costs involved such as transportation costs are minimised, customers are able to find the products of the company in one place without having to move from one place to another (Johnston, & Beaton, 1998). This means that exhibitions have a higher return/expense ratio, something which every business always strive to achieve. The higher return/expense ratio is as a result of the following reasons: Many customers or attendees who come to the exhibitions always arrive with a particular agenda or a need which they seek to accomplish at the exhibition. This means that the customers who arrive at the exhibition will not cause the business to incur more expenses in attracting the customers except for what has already been incurred to prepare for the exhibition. In the exhibitions, the business investors do not require to make any sales calls to close the deals with the customers since most of the people who attend have their agenda already set. This means that the business will not incur any extra cost involved n making sales calls since the live presentations and the demonstrations of the company’s products or service are enough to lead the customers to purchase the products or services of the company. Compared to product or services sales calls which are quite costly, the exhibition leads do not require a lot of expense to accomplish or close a deal. Field sales require sales calls to be made by the company but in the exhibitions on the demonstrations and live presentations are enough. This means that exhibitions are much cheaper in helping the business to achieve its main objective of maximizing profits and minimizing expense hence higher returns/expense ratio which is good for the business. Exhibition provides an avenue for the exchange of information between the exhibition attendees and the companies that are displaying their products or services at the exhibition. At the exhibition, the business investor has the opportunity to pass information to the customers about the products or services that the company is offering since the investor comes into face-to-face contact with the new and old customers. These customers will in turn act as a tool of advertising the products and services of the company to those other potential customers who never went to the exhibition. The customers help in advertising the company’s products and services through word of mouth. This helps the company to reach more potential customers without incurring extra costs of advertisement. Therefore, exhibitions help the company to achieve higher return/expense ratio which will in turn mean the company will be able to maximize profits (Frain, 1999). Business-to-Business trading Exhibitions also play an important role in a business if a good exhibition programme is created and implemented by a business. Through exhibition, a company is able to meet with other business investors. This will enable the business to exchange business ideas and information which might be helpful to the running of the business. Exhibitions help the investor to identify and establish new joint ventures and projects by other business investors which may result in partnership hence helping to expand the business. This is because, at the exhibitions, the business investor may meet other business investors who share the same business ideas and beliefs which then could translate into new ventures for the business (Ellis, 2010). New Recruitment There are some many people who attend exhibitions some of who are potential business agents, distributors or even employees for the business. Through the opportunity of face-to-face interaction between the business investor and the exhibition attendees, the business investor has the opportunity of identifying and recruiting new business agents, distributors and even staffs for the business. The business investor does not incur any extra cost in this activity since they are able to meet the potential agents, distributors and even staffs face-to-face without having to locate them. This also helps in saving time in terms of searching for new agents, distributors or even employees (Ellis, 2010). Easy Market Research and Information Gathering When a business investor involves in exhibitions, they have the opportunity of meeting the customers face-to-face. The business investor through live presentations and demonstrations of the products or services of the company is able to obtain an immediate feedback from the new customers or the old customers on the various products or services that the company offers. This can be done through free samples and the live presentations and demonstrations. Since there is face-to-face contact, the customers are able to provide an immediate feedback about the product or the service (Morley, & Lees, 2009). The company can use these feedbacks to improve on its products or services or simply to maintain the quality depending on the feedback they obtain. The company does not have to wait for too long to obtain customer feedback. The feedback obtained by the company at an exhibition can be used immediately by the company to help it achieve more results for its products or services. In addition, through the feedback the company is able to obtain at an exhibition, the company is able to understand the needs of the customers and in turn react immediately to those needs than the competitors in the same market (Huang, & Lund, 2009). Focusing on the needs of the customers is crucial to a business and also helps the business to overcome competition and hence immediate feedback through the interaction at the exhibition, helps the business to keep its focus on the actual needs of the customers. The exhibitions also helps in understanding the strengths and weakness of the competitors since the research results and feedback obtained during the exhibition, can help the business in knowing what areas of business it can improve on to fight off competition. Exhibition helps the business to understand how competitors react to the needs of customers and also to learn the various changes that are taking place within the industry of the business. Research and immediate customer feedback obtained by the company during the exhibition helps the company to stay ahead of the competitors through product or services advancement and the use of new technology. The graph below illustrates the effectiveness of various channels of marketing in the exchange and gathering of information in any business environment: From the Figure 1 above, it can be noted that exhibitions and Personal sales share the same percentage in terms of exchange and gathering of information for the business when engaging customers and other potential business partners. This is due to the reason that, under exhibitions and personal sales, there is close contact with the customer hence the higher chances of getting information in an easy and quicker way. Convenience Marketing requires large sums of money to conduct in a business. This means that the business will not be able to achieve higher profits. On the other hand, in an exhibition, the business needs only to hire a stand where it will display its products and services. This is quite a convenience for the company since the company will not have to spend a lot of money while at the same time the impact of the exhibition will be greater than that experienced with marketing such as advertisement. For those business investors who are not sure of the amount of return on investment they will achieve when first attending an exhibition, this is a very convenient way o introduce products or services to the public at a cheaper cost (Solberg, 2013). Flexibility Every business seeks a way of undertaking its operations while at the same time having the opportunity to change whenever necessary and still achieve its main objective of higher profits. Exhibitions offer an opportunity to be flexible since the business investor has the ability and freedom to customize his/her exhibits for each exhibition that they have to attend. This means that the business investor has the opportunity to experiment on matters such as size and also has the opportunity to configure their exhibits to see and find out what works best for the schedule of exhibitions that the company has to attend in its quest to make profits and expand its markets. Cost effectiveness Exhibitions are quite cost effective to any business especially through the hiring of the exhibition stand. It is also cost effective since exhibitions provide extra options whereby, the business investor is able to stretch the budget for the exhibition to include many other new options that the business investor may not have been able to afford. These may include issues such as dramatic lighting, brochure racks, furniture and even extra large formatted graphics among others which can be added to create a greater impact for the business exhibition at no extra cost hence making exhibitions a lot cheaper than marketing strategies such as advertisement (Raluca, & Cristina, 2008). The graph below helps to demonstrate the effectiveness of exhibition as a method of promoting the products or services of a company when compared to the other channels or strategies such as direct marketing, Print advertising, Public relations, and the internet: From the Figure 2 above, Series 1 represents the Benefits of Products and Services when the various strategies are applied by a business in selling of its products and services. The above Figure 2 demonstrates that a good exhibition programme is quite effective in helping the business to benefit from its products and services since it is able to realize more sales when compared to the other channels of product or service marketing. Series 2 in Figure 1 above represents the impact of the various channels on the building of public relationships with the customers and other potential customers or business partners. From the graph, it can be noted that exhibitions gives a higher percentage when it comes to issue of building public relationship with the customers and potential business partners. This is due to the reason that, under exhibition, the business investor is in close contact with the customers and the potential business partners hence a greater advantage in building public relationship that is stronger (Solberg, 2013). The internet is the poor performer in terms of benefits of the products and services of the company since some aspects such as customer contact is not available. Therefore, it can be said that exhibition, as a mode of product and services marketing has a greater impact in terms of achieving the main objective of every business of maximizing profits and also creating and maintaining great public relationship with customers and the potential investors. The other advantage that is derived from exhibitions is that the business investor has the opportunity to observe and evaluate the products of the competitors of the business. This will enable the business investor to know the strengths and weaknesses of the competitors in terms of the products that they are offering to the customers. Knowing the products or services that the competitors of the business are offering gives the business an added advantage since the investor is able to know what changes to make on their product or services so that they are superior to the products of the competitors (Mei-Chin, & Sui-Ming, 2013). Having superior products or services to those of the competitors will mean that the business is capable of overcoming the competition in the market. Problems Associated with Exhibitions Even though exhibitions may be the best form of business promotion for products and services, there are various challenges or problems that business investors will be faced with in the process of participating in exhibitions or trade shows. Some of those problems are such as increase in costs of construction and exhibits, personnel travelling, boarding and lodging fees which add to the cost of conducting the exhibitions (Honess, 1997). In addition, the choice of which exhibitions to participate in, how much to be spent on every exhibition, and ways of building exhibits that will be attractive to customers are some of the other challenges that are faced by business investors who engage in business exhibitions to sell and promote their products and services. Ways of overcoming challenges involved in Exhibitions There are some considerations and issues that a business investor will need to put in mind so that they can engage in a successful exhibition. In addition, to achieve the above advantages for the business through exhibitions, business investors need to plan and create an exhibition programme that is good and capable of achieving the above advantages and bring high returns for the business (White, 2013). The following are some of the considerations and objectives that a business investor will need to set when engaging in exhibition as a form of promoting the products or services of the company to achieve maximum results: Overall purpose of participation Every business encounter such as involvement and participation in exhibitions requires that a business investor must have an objective they want to achieve through the exhibition. There must be a goal to be accomplished at the end of the exhibition and without setting out the objective or purpose of participation, then success in an exhibition will not be achieved ( Thomas, 1995). Creating actual Sales Business investors who participate in exhibitions must ensure that there are actual sales made during the exhibition. This should be the main objective of participating in an exhibition since more sales translates into more profits for the business. There is no business that wants to incur costs and realize no sales. Therefore, the exhibition must help to realize actual sales for the business for it to be considered successful and beneficial. Identifying potential customers For a successful exhibition, a business investor must have an objective of identifying and obtaining potential new customers for the business and improving on the relations with the older customers. This ensures the business of an added market and creating a new market for the products and services of the company. In addition, the business investor must be able to obtain sales leads for the business. This will enable the business to make sales without making sales calls which are costly. Gathering Competitive Intelligence For a successful exhibition, the business investor must ensure that they are able to obtain competitive intelligence that will give them an added advantage over the competitors. Every business investor who attends an exhibition must be able to information that is relevant for the business and which can help the business to better its performance and achieve higher profits (Havaldar, 2005). Target audience to be reached There are different types of people who attend the exhibitions. For success of the business in an exhibition and to be able o achieve maximum results from the exhibition, the business investor must be able the audience that they want to reach out to with their products and services. Identifying the suitable and targeted audience makes it easy for the business investor to sell their products and services to the targeted market since the products and services will have been made to suit that particular targeted audience. Therefore, based on the various specific objectives that a business investor has laid down for the business, he/she is able to make a decision on which exhibitions to attend that will bring maximum results for the business and at a cheaper cost (Thomas, 1995). Conclusion There are many forms of business promotion that an investor or companies can apply to promote their products or service and achieve results. Businesses have a main aim and objective of maximizing profits at the lowest costs possible. Some of the methods of product or service promotion are costly and the results achieved may not be impressive. Therefore, compared to the other forms of business product or service promotion, exhibition comes out as one of the most effective tool of marketing products or services of a company. Exhibitions provide a cheaper avenue of promoting a business while at the same time availing so many opportunities to the business which are useful in helping the business to achieve maximum profits. Therefore, exhibition can be said to be one of the most effective form of product or services promotion for any business due to the various advantages that the business can achieve at lower costs. References Ausstellungs- und Messe-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft. (2010). Exhibition Market   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Latin America 2011/2012: Trade Shows in Latin America: New Opportunities for   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   International Exhibitors. Stuttgart: local global GmbH. Ellis, N. (2010). Business-to-business marketing: Relationships, networks and strategies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Frain, J. (1999). Introduction to marketing. London: International Thomson Business. Havaldar, K. K. (2005). Industrial marketing: Text and cases. New Delhi: Tata McGraw-Hill. Honess, S. (1997). Marketing for construction firms. London: Thomas Telford. Huang, B., & Lund, D. W. (2009). Influence of the Yiwu Fair on the development of business travel and the local economy. Global Business & Organizational Excellence, 28(6),   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   53-63. Johnston, S., & Beaton, H. (1998). Foundations of international marketing. London:   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   International Thomson Business. Mei-Chin, C., & Sui-Ming, C. (2013). Effective Marketing Strategies to Attract Business   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Visitors at Trade Shows. International Journal Of Business & Management, 8(24),   Ã‚   64-72. doi:10.5539/ijbm.v8n24p64 Morley, J., & Lees, S. (2009). The brighter marketing bible: For small businesses. England?:   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Lean Marketing Press. Raluca, C., & Cristina, D. (2008). Measuring The Efficiency Of The Prospecting Activity.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Annals Of The University Of Oradea, Economic Science Series, 17(4), 796-801. Siskind, B. (2005). Powerful exhibit marketing: The complete guide to successful trade   Ã‚   shows, conferences and consumer shows. Mississauga, Ont: J. Wiley & Sons Canada. Solberg, S. K. (2013). Exhibit marketing and trade show intelligence: Successful boothmanship and booth design. Berlin: Springer. Thomas, M. J. (1995). Gower handbook of marketing. Aldershot, Hampshire, England:    Gower. TileagÄÆ', C., & Cosmescu, I. (2012). Realities And Perspectives Of Business Tourism On A   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Global Scale. Annals Of The University Of Oradea,   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Economic Science Series, 21(1),   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   432-438. White, D. (2013). Get set for your first exhibition. Fmcg, 19(2), 49.

The Byronic Hero

While popular culture is usually regarded as something trite, meaningless, and superficial, careful and insightful analysis of certain aspects of popular culture reveals a lot about culture as a whole. For the purposes of this essay, I decided to concentrate on one of the pop idols of the 20th century, namely Jim Morrison. The rationale behind my choice is that this figure produced a powerful impact on popular culture, and the cult of Jim Morrison is still appealing to many generations of American.As for the theoretical perspective to be employed in this essay, I will show how the cult of Jim Morrison is a reincarnation of the image of the Byronic Hero that has always been present in world culture. The Byronic Hero is an extraordinary and talented young man. Tremendous success of Jim Morrison leaves no doubt in his enormous talent, charisma, and energy. I dare call him a genius for the ample reason that speaking about the overall history of contemporary music, people remember only tw o names, the Beatles and the Doors, and the Doors in the first place.Secondly, the Byronic Hero is a rebel who opposes almost all social norms and regulations; he deliberately distances himself from conventional social institutions. This feature was characteristic of Jim Morrison from the early childhood: he used to question the authority, and for that he was dismissed from a scout club. At night, he used to sneak out from his parents’ house and hang out at overcrowded and disreputable bars. His juvenile misbehaving soon evolved into a consistent social protest expressed trough music and show.‘Philosophies of Protest’ used to be his favorite course at Florida State University (Davis, 2004). He denounced traditional social patterns; the evidence for that is the fact that he never got married. Instead, he ‘married’ Patricia Kennealy in a Celtic pagan ceremony. The Byronic Hero is never impressed by rank and privilege, though he may possess it. Jim Morr ison might have become a representative of the elite circles with good education, stable job, and decent social status. Yet he made a choice in favor of a flamboyant bohemian lifestyle. Another feature of the Byronic Hero is intelligence.The conventional Byronic Hero is well-read and possibly well-bread. Jim Morrison took a keen interest in self-education; he devoted a lot of time to reading Nietzsche, Jung, Ginsberg, Joyce, and Balzac. He derived inspiration in the literary heritage of French symbolists, especially Rimbaud. It is worth noting that Arthur Rimbaud himself was an exemplary Byronic Hero, with his dark passions and impressive talents. By the age of fifteen, Jim established himself as a gifted poet and painter; some sources argue that Jim Morrison had an IQ of 149 (Davis, 2004).He received solid education and traveled the world. These facts prove that Jim Morrison possessed the majority of features typical for the Byronic Hero. Another characteristic of the Byronic Hero is the exile, usually self-imposed. Exile to Paris is an essential part of Jim Morrison’s biography. Morrison escaped to Paris with Pamela Courson; he did so because he disliked being a celebrity. He was deeply dissatisfied with the absence of serious attitude to him as an American poet. Paris seemed to provide an asylum.The conventional Byronic Hero is distressed by a terrible thing he committed in the past, like a hidden curse or crime; this burden forces him into a voluntary exile. When Morrison escaped to Paris, he faced a tragic dilemma in his life. His two women, Pamela Courson and Patricia Kennealy, both demanded his love. Some researchers believe that his love for Patricia Kennealy was greater, but Pamela let him continue his experiments with alcohol and drugs (Davis, 2004). He may have always felt guilt and regret for leaving Patricia. The Byronic Hero is constantly depressed and melancholic.It is reported that in Paris Morrison searched for a sense of living as well as for inspiration to write more powerful poetry (Davis, 2004). But even in the city of great poets Morrison was spiritually void and suffered from depression. The Byronic Hero is unusually handsome and inextricably attractive, often to both sexes. I dare label Jim Morrison as the most prominent male sex-symbol of the 20th century. The Byronic Hero is larger than life in his feelings, talents, ambitions, and pride. This type is also self-destructive in the longer run.That is one of the most substantial arguments that prove Jim Morrison’s connection with the discussed image. His progressing addiction to alcohol and drugs was his curse. Thus, Morrison can be regarded as an example of the Byronic Hero that has been present in world culture from its creation in early Greek theatre through classical English literature and 19th-Century Russian literature to the modern times. It is evident that the classical Byronic Heroes is Byron’s Childe Harold. The Canto I from the Child e Harold's Pilgrimage provides an excessive proof for all the abovementioned images of a Byronic Hero.The following lines can be interpreted as the example of rebellious nature of the Byronic Hero: ‘Who ne in virtue's ways did take delight/But spent his days in riot most uncouth†¦Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ (Canto I, 2, lines 1-2). Precursors of this typical hero of English Romanticism can be traced back to Greek theatre. The notion of hamartia, or tragic flaw, is intrinsically linked to the early development of the Byronic Hero. The Byronic Hero is also present in literary Gothicism as one of the literary trends within the tradition of Romanticism.In the Romantic literature, two different types of heroes can be found, namely Satanic Hero and Byronic Hero. In fact, Satan is also believed to be an early version of the Byronic Hero. Despite some apparent differences, these two literary types have much in common: ‘Like Satan, the Byronic hero is an outsider and an overreacher, though the divine Law that he violates is not the First Commandment but the Seventh, a sin often involving not only adultery but incest’ (Polidori, Le Fanu & Stoker, 2002, p. 6). As for the classical period in literature, Heathcliff from ‘Wuthering Heights’ is another example of Byronic hero.Captain Ahab from ‘Moby Dick’ is sometimes also cited as a Byronic Hero, although there no broad consensus among critics: ‘Captain Ahab's rebellious nature and attitude towards existing norms illustrates his Byronic qualities, as well as the overall dark nature of his humanity’ (Hospelhorn & Nicolson, 2003, ‘Moby Dick’). Byronic Hero found new incarnation in classic Russian literature. Such notable writers as Alexander Bestuzhev-Marlinsky, Alexander Pushkin, and Mikhail Lermontov all contributed to the emergence of the phenomenon later referred to as ‘the Russified Byronic Hero. ’In the modern time, the recreation of the Byronic Hero is often attributed to Albert Camus in his novel ‘The Rebel’: ‘But it was Camus's recreation, in modern terms, of the solitary Byronic hero, who resists fate and an alien world by defiant acts, which brought the cult so vividly to life and gave it actual meaning to youth on both sides of the Rhine’ (Johnson, 2001, p. 575). Therefore, it is possible to conclude that Jim Morrison as an incarnation of the Byronic Hero exemplifies the pervasiveness of archetypes that have been present in world art and literature since ancient times.References Davis, S. Jim Morrison: Life, Death, Legend. New York: Gotham Books, 2004. Hospelhorn, S. , & Nicolson, A. ‘Byronic Heroes in Russian Literature. ’ 2003. October 8, 2007. Johnson, P. M. Modern Times Revised Edition: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties, Revised ed. New York: Harper Perennial Modern Classics, 2001. Polidori, J. W. , Le Fanu, J. , & Stoker, B. Three Vampire Tales: Dracula, Carmilla, and The Vampyre. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2002.

Using the evidence of the three sources above, and your own knowledge, to what extent did Hitler succeed in creating a genuine volksgemeinschaft Essays

Using the evidence of the three sources above, and your own knowledge, to what extent did Hitler succeed in creating a genuine volksgemeinschaft Essays Using the evidence of the three sources above, and your own knowledge, to what extent did Hitler succeed in creating a genuine volksgemeinschaft Essay Using the evidence of the three sources above, and your own knowledge, to what extent did Hitler succeed in creating a genuine volksgemeinschaft Essay Essay Topic: Our Countrys Good Volksgemeinschaft means Peoples Community. This meant that there was to be no individual person, whether he stands at the top or bottom of society, can possess the right to make use of this freedom at the cost of the national concept of freedom. For only the security of the national concept of freedom makes safe the continuation of his personal freedom. This suggests that all individuals represent the community and are the same, therefore whatever they do; good or bad will affect the whole community. Hitler wanted Germans who were genetically pure to come together into one Community to be the superior dominating race.Those in Germany, who were not ethnically German, such as Communists and Jews, would be excluded from this community. But this also included Germans who were mentally ill and social outcasts. They would be put in concentration camps and removed from any high office and discriminated against. Volksgemeinschaft also involved a sense of hyper-Nationalism and racism in that Hitler wanted people to believe that they should be proud to be part of the Volksgemeinschaft. He carried out various methods in order to succeed with the creation of a genuine Volksgemeinschaft. Therefore, in the following essay I will be arguing that Hitler didnt succeed in creating a Volksgemeinschaft.Hitlers overall aim was to create Volksgemeinschaft. In order to do this he needed the support of various institutions and individuals in Germany, but this was a failure because propaganda did not achieve its revolutionary goal of destroying class and religious loyalties. This portrays that Hitler could not destroy the churches and class loyalties. Although, Hitler did manage to gain control of the Protestant church because it had many branches and so the Nazis could form their own branches and eventually replace the Protestant churches. The churches faced serious attempts by the regime to establish effective ideological control through the Reich Church under Bishop Ludwig Muller. I n September 1933, the Confessing Church under the leadership of Martin Neimoller was set up. Despite increasing Gestapo harassment, the Confessing Church managed to defeat the attempts to control worship and Hitler abandoned Mullers Reich Church.The Catholic Church also faced increasing aggressiveness and many Nazis begun seeking ways to remove crucifixes from churches and to stop Catholic Youth movements. Although the Catholics resisted effectively their resentment never developed into political opposition to the regime. But it did defend its independence and after 1939 effectively opposed. Hitler wanted to control the Catholic Church and eventually replace them with the German Faith Movement. However, failed because the Catholic Church was increasingly powerful and too big to control.The Nazis failed to destroy the class loyalties in the workers and were futile in gaining their support. This was because the workers lost their trade unions and bargaining points. They were forced to work longer hours for lower wages. Additionally, the strength through joy scheme was expensive and a big scam as the Volkswagen was very expensive to create and not one car was ever built. Hence, Hitler could not succeed in creating a unified Volksgemeinschaft because he could not gain the support of the various organisations within Germany as they all had reasons to oppose the Nazi regime.On the other hand, some may argue that Hitler did succeed in creating a genuine Volksgemeinschaft because the Hitler Youth were enthusiastic about life under the Nazi regime because it provided wide-scale opportunities for advancement. This suggests that the German youth were offered exciting activities such as sporting events and trips to the countryside. Such activities appealed to many because they had never experienced this before. Furthermore, they also enjoyed hiking, singing and camping, which was away from home and school. This appealed to the German Youth because the regime had brought a bout real change. This emphasises that they had never experienced such enjoyment before and therefore, the introduction of such activities was both overwhelming and thrilling hence, they fuelled their support for the creation of the Volksgemeinschaft. However, I disagree with this because not all youths conformed to the Nazi ideals as until late 1943increasingly negative attitudes are recorded. This clearly demonstrates that Hitler did not have a positive response from all youths, for example The White Rose Group. The group distributed pamphlets attacking the lack of freedom and detailing the atrocities against Jews.In spite of this, others argue that the Nazi regime did have successes because it heightened national awareness, and that this was in itself sufficient to secure for the regime a considerable degree of stability and social integration. This implies that the regime brought about changes by securing the stability of social issues, for example women were encouraged to give birth to Aryan babies and they were rewarded this. Additionally a number of welfare schemes were introduced to support women and children. This resolves the social issues that women may experience hence some argue that Hitler succeeded in creating a genuine Volksgemeinschaft because he got the support of women. Yet, I still believe Hitler did not succeed because not all women gave birth to loads of Aryan babies. Moreover many women, especially from the late 1930s onwards had to struggle to manage families and work therefore, the regime was not stable hence, Hitler did not succeed in creating a genuine Volksgemeinschaft.In conclusion, I believe that Hitler did not succeed because; he failed to gain the support of the various institutions and individuals in Germany. His aims of controlling the churches had failed; he failed to gain the support of the workers because he did not meet their demands. Furthermore he faced increasing opposition from youth groups and he did not resolve the s ocial problems that women faced when managing families. These are all evidences that Hitler did not succeed in creating a genuine Volksgemeinschaft although it did grip all areas of public life, but it did not receive a positive response from the German citizens.

Short essays questions Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Short essays questions - Essay Example In turn, these decisions affect recruitment, selection, and employment schemes. As opposed to this, a staffing plan is used for monitoring and controlling the costs of human capital to create an infrastructure that encourages effective decision-making. The plan takes into account workload and outcome measures, which assist an organization in predicting its present and future staffing needs. 3. Firstly, it is integral to understand the nature, strategies and plans of business that are driving changes in staffing levels. Next, the driving factors behind staffing needs should be identified, followed by identifying constraints on staffing. Having done that, new changes in roles and positions should be introduced. Thereafter, quantitative techniques should be applied to appropriate areas, supplemented by qualitative methods too. Lastly but most importantly, analysis of the overall strategy is imperative to learn lessons for the future. 4. Controllable actions in relation to staffing actions could include targeted retention, reduction, redeployment, promotion, transfer, hiring, recruiting etc. On the other hand, uncontrollable actions can range from voluntary turnover rates, retirements, other losses etc. 5. Staffing ratio establishes a numerical relationship between the volume/output and the number of workforce required to perform/produce that output. For instance, IT tasks tend to be project-based; hence, it becomes important to determine the truly required number of project managers. This can be done through calculating various staffing ratios such as: users per project manager, capital investment per project manager, the percentage of IT staff who is project managers, or applications to be developed per project manager. 6. The first solution of the 30,000-foot approach emphasises on explaining the increase in management effectiveness through the adoption of a novel approach to workforce planning by

Harmful effects of boxing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Harmful effects of boxing - Essay Example All this just cannot be valid things to make us consider it as a necessary one in our life. Unless we take a broader view, the real effects of boxing cannot be understood in real sense.Is boxing really a sport This is the question that has to be focused on first. The duty of any sport is to entertain the audience and give them pleasure, but not at the cost of the participant's life. We can very well say that all sports are dangerous and boxing is one among them, but the truth is risks in the other sports are accidental, whereas in boxing the purpose of hurting is the real goal. In the name of defeating a person, the boxer actually takes the chance of injuring his opponent fatally. Looking at each men fight for their lives and getting the pleasure from it is what we are all have been doing. Is it not the worst form of entertainment It is very surprising to see how inhumane we are just as the boxers out there.We should derive happiness from sports, the games should encourage us. It sho uld give progress for individual development for both body and mind. This should be the real motive of all sports. But clearly, boxing does not seem to do this. It is just a brutal and barbaric way of human behavior that is all. The real objective of boxing is to knock the opponent to unconsciousness and then claim the title, no matter even if life is lost. In what way does it sound good Is there anything in this sport that we can implement in our life Does it teach us anything These are some questions that we all should think about. Only then we will be in a state of mind to accept the tragic nature of this savage sport. Though there are so many developments in science, technology and education, we have failed to care about certain things. One among them is boxing. We have not understood to look at it as something threatening the life of the players. We are happy to look at them thrashing and punching each other and bleeding throughout the game and with such a stupid curiosity we wait in want of more. More than the players, I personally condemn the authorities and audiences who are the real triggering force behind these boxers. If we stop considering it, things will change and slowly this game would die out in the end. To be very frank, there is nothing fruitful that we can obtain from this game. We have made ourselves to risk in unwanted activities to destroy ourselves. Boxing is one of those industries that make the life of people worst. Here humans are exploited in the name of sport. Boxing triggers our inhumane behavior and makes us act like beasts which sometimes end in killing each other. When education tries to modify human behavior, sports such as this really messes up everything and makes us loose our sense. Here are few cases from which we ourselves can witness the brutality of boxing. BOXING IS HARMING Three hundred thirty boxers have died from injuries received in the ring as per a survey taken from 1945. Though these statistics are no greater than that of football or hockey, you must remember that the very purpose of boxing is to inflict as much pain or injury to the opponent as possible. There are many causes of these boxing-related deaths, however. One cause of death among boxers is long-term diseases such as Alzheimer's or Parkinson's. One such case is that of Sugar Ray Robinson. Though he did not die directly after a boxing match, it is believed that Alzheimer's contributed to his death. He died at the age of sixty-eight in 1989.

Internship report Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Internship report - Assignment Example the company, I was holding the position of jvs preparation and filing, payment request preparation, payroll and employee benefit, petty cash controlling as well as preparation of P&L preparation on monthly basis. In this, the company, under the supervision of Hashim Al Shuaili, ensured that I was fully trained in these areas. This made me gain tremendous experience needed in the employment sector. Other than the experience, I also made several networks in the company. I was introduced to several departments and made several contacts with different personnel. This is an important leverage when it comes to job seeking. This has ensured that I have an edge in the job market. In addition to the above, the internship with the Modern Jozze Company made me apply classroom knowledge in the positions I was assigned. This ensured that I applied the skills gained in classroom into a real world setting. This was very important in proving my worth in the positions that I was assigned. The internship has made me develop professional behavioral and social skills. This is due to increased interactions with different individuals as well as customers. As such, I have been able to get a head start on classroom learning through working as an intern at Modern Jozze

Patient portal adoption challanges Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Patient portal adoption challanges - Essay Example On the contrary, motivation based factors are the attitudes that the medical staff has towards the adoption of healthcare portals. In this context, the professionals complain that the portals are difficult to use, require more than enough training. Moreover, some have presumed that the portals are inappropriate for handling healthcare records while others simply state that they do not enjoy using the information systems. To some extent, the medical staffs are justified in their objection to patient portals since they require technical knowledge absent in most of the workers (Ronda, Dijkhorst-Oei, & Rutten, 2014). The use of a patient portal requires suffice skills on Information Technology as opposed to medical and health care knowledge. Security and privacy concerns have been some of the misgivings of information systems and given the nature of the systems, breaches can occur where stealing of personal data can be a huge set back to the adoption of the portals. Nonetheless, the privacy issue concerns sharing of critical information with the employer, a situation that has made many medical staffs be worried about the extent of personal information they leave feed into the system. Medical workers presume that too much personal information is compromising their relationships with their employers. LeRouge, C., Slyke, C., Seale, D & Wright, K. (September, 2014). Baby Boomers’ Adoption of Consumer Health Technologies: Survey on Readiness and Barriers. Journal of Medical Internet Research. 16(9). Retrieved from http://www.jmir.org/2014/9/e200/#table4 Ronda, M. C., Dijkhorst-Oei, L.-T., & Rutten, G. E. (2014). Reasons and Barriers for Using a Patient Portal: Survey Among Patients With Diabetes Mellitus. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 16(11), e263.

Perkembangan

Perkembangan CADANGAN DEVISA, FINANCIAL DEEPENING DAN STABILISASI NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH AKIBAT GEJOLAK NILAI TUKAR PERDAGANGAN Abstract These papers analyze the influence of the international reserves and the financial deepening on the real exchange rate stabilization due to the terms of trade shock. The analysis covers 6 countries with quarterly data (Indonesia, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea during the period of 2000.1 to 2006.4). This research utilizes the international reserves mitigation and the financial deepening mitigation model. This result shows that the reserves mitigation terms variable plays important role as the real exchange rate stabilization regarding the terms of trade shock in a common sample, but not in specific country. The mitigation effect associated with international reserves (buffer stock effect) applies only in South Korea. While for United State and Indonesia mitigation effect associated with international reserves opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. Furthermore, the financial deepening mitigation terms variable cannot be treated as the real exchange rate stabilization in a common sample, but not specific country. The mitigation effect associated with financial deepening (shock absorber effect) applies only in United States and Indonesian economic, while for South Korea the mitigation effect associated with the financial deepening works in opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect of financial deepening does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. In Indonesian economic, the financial deepening is more effective than the international reserve to create the real exchange rate stability. The shock absorber effect in Indonesia is more effective than the buffer stock effect to stabilize the real exchange rate due to the terms of trade shock. JEL Classification: E44, F31, F32 Keywords: International reserves, buffer stock, financial deepening, shock absorber, terms of trade shock, real exchange rate. I. PENDAHULUAN Perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia dewasa ini menunjukkan semakin terintegrasi dengan perekonomian dunia. Hal ini merupakan konsekuensi dari dianutnya sistem perekonomian terbuka yang dalam aktivitasnya selalu berhubungan dan tidak lepas dari fenomena hubungan internasional. Adanya keterbukaan perekonomian ini memiliki dampak pada perkembangan neraca pembayaran suatu negara yang meliputi arus perdagangan dan lalu lintas modal terhadap luar negeri suatu negara. Salah satu bentuk aliran modal yang masuk ke dalam negeri yaitu dapat berupa devisa yang berasal dari perdagangan internasional yang dilakukan oleh negara tersebut. Meningkatnya ekspor suatu negara akan membawa keuntungan yaitu kenaikan pendapatan, kenaikan devisa, transfer modal dan makin banyaknya kesempatan kerja. Demikian pula meningkatnya impor suatu negara akan memberikan lebih banyak alternatif barang-barang yang dapat dikonsumsi dan terpenuhinya kebutuhan bahan-bahan baku penolong serta barang modal untuk kebutuhan industri di negara-negara tersebut dan transfer teknologi. Perdagangan internasional akan terjadi pada suatu perbandingan harga tertentu yaitu antara harga ekspor dan harga impor yang sering disebut nilai tukar perdagangan (terms of trade, TOT). Nilai tukar perdagangan besar sekali pengaruhnya terhadap kesejahteraan suatu bangsa dan juga sebagai pengukur posisi perdagangan luar negeri suatu bangsa. TOT yang disimbolkan dengan N dihitung sebagai perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor (Px) dengan indeks harga impor (Pm) atau N = Px/Pm (Nopirin 1992: 71). Kenaikan N menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam Terms of Trade. Perbaikan terms of trade ini dapat timbul sebagai akibat nilai perubahan harga ekspor yang lebih besar realatif terhadap harga impor. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan pendapatan negara tersebut dari perdagangan demikian sebaliknya. Selain mempengaruhi pendapatan negara, pergerakan TOT juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil, (Mankiw, 2000: 195). Upaya untuk mengatasi pengaruh memburuknya terms of trade terhadap nilai tukar ini dapat menggunakan cadangan devisa (international reserves) yang dimiliki negara yang bersangkutan. Hal ini dibuktikan oleh penelitian Aizenman and Crichton (2006), menyebutkan bahwa negara-negara yang mengekspor barang ­barang sumberdaya alam memiliki volatilitas terms of trade yang 3 kali lebih volatil dibandingkan negara-negara yang mengekspor barang manufaktur. Selain besaran pergerakan TOT, volatilitas ini juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil suatu negara Pada dasarnya international reserves berfungsi sebagai buffer stock untuk berjaga-jaga guna menghadapi ketidakpastian keadaan yang akan datang. Sehingga, apabila terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar riil akibat memburuknya terms of trade maka disitulah international reserves berfungsi sebagai penstabil. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk sehingga akan kembali mendorong apresiasi nilai tukar riil. Seperti halnya penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Rajan dan Siregar (2004), diperoleh bahwa reserves merupakan kunci utama dari suatu negara untuk dapat menghindari krisis ekonomi dan keuangan. Terutama bagi negara-negara dengan perekonomian yang terbuka dimana aliran modal internasional adalah volatil atau rentan terhadap terjadinya shock yang merambat dari negara lain (contagion effect). Bahwa dengan melihat pengalaman krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1997, negara yang memiliki reserves yang besar dapat menghindari contagion effect dari krisis dengan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan negara yang memiliki reserves yang kecil. Upaya untuk mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock selain dengan international reserves juga dapat diatasi dengan mengukur financial deepening (kedalaman sektor keuangan) suatu negara. Financial deepening diukur melalui rasio M2 dibagi GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Penggunaan rasio ini dikarenakan merupakan rasio paling umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perkembangan sektor keuangan suatu negara. Hasil rasio ini akan menunjukkan rasio penggunaan M2 untuk menghasilkan setiap GDP. Semakin kecil dalam rasio tersebut menunjukkan semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara dan semakin besar rasio tersebut menunjukkan sektor keuangan negara tersebut semakin dalam. Suatu negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar cederung mengurangi peran international reserves sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil. Hal ini dikarenakan negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar dapat dikatakan telah memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sudah baik sehingga negara tersebut dapat mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock dengan penyesuaian otomatis melalui mekanisme pasar, Aizenman dan Crichton (2006). Karakteristik Indonesia sebagai à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  small open economyà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   yang menganut sistem devisa bebas dan sistem nilai tukar mengambang (free floating) menyebabkan pergerakan nilai tukar di pasar rentan oleh pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non-ekonomi. Untuk mengurangi gejolak nilai tukar yang berlebihan maka pelaksanaan intervensi menjadi sangat penting terutama untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar pada saat tertentu yang benar-benar dibutuhkan agar dapat memberikan kepastian bagi dunia usaha. Salah satu bentuk intervensi itu adalah dengan menggunakan international reserves dan ini sejalan dengan argumentasi Aizenman,dkk (2004) bahwa suatu negara yang menerapkan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas akan cenderung mengurangi permintaan international reserves-nya. Di Indonesia, Bank Indonesia sejauh ini berupaya untuk mengoptimalkan berbagai fasilitas atau insentif agar semakin banyak eksportir yang bersedia menyerahkan devisa hasil ekspornya ke Bank Indonesia (Goeltom dan Zulverdi, 1998). Bahkan dalam masa krisis pasar modal global 2008 ini, Bank Indonesia mewajibkan pengguna valas untuk melaporkan peruntukannya jika melebihi US$10.000 per bulan. Permasalahan mendasar yang diangkat dalam penelitian ini diantaranya: 1) Bagaimanakah pengaruh international reserves dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. 2) Bagaimanakah pengaruh financial deepening dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. Kedua permasalahan tersebut akan dibahas bagaimanakah pengaruhnya di keseluruhan obyek penelitian dan juga secara spesifik setiap Negara untuk memperoleh perbandingan antar Negara, khususnya antara Indonesia dengan Negara-negara mitra dagang utama (Amerika serikat, Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan dan Hongkong). II. TEORI II.1. International Reserves ≈The need of a central bank for international reserves is similar to an individual »s desire to hold cash balances (currency and checkable deposits)à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   (Carbaugh, 2004: 513). Dari pernyataan tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa kebutuhan international reserves bagi suatu negara mempunyai tujuan dan manfaat seperti halnya manfaat kekayaan bagi suatu individu. Motif kepemilikan international reserves dapat disamakan dengan motif seseorang untuk memegang uang yaitu untuk motif transaksi, motif berjaga-jaga dan motif spekulasi. Motif transaksi antara lain untuk membiayai transaksi impor yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka mendukung proses pembangunan, motif berjaga-jaga berkaitan dengan mengelola nilai tukar, serta motif yang ketiga adalah untuk lebih memenuhi kebutuhan diversifikasi kekayaan (memperoleh return dari kegiatan investasi dengan international reserves (Gandhi, 2006: 1). Jhingan (2001) menyatakan bahwa ≈International liquidity (generally used as a synonym for international reserves) is defined as the aggregate stock of internally acceptable assets held by the central bank to settle a deficit in a country »s balance of payments. International reserves merupakan asset dari bank sentral yang dipergunakan untuk mengatasi ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran. Definisi tersebut senada dengan konsep International Reserves and Foreign Currency Lliquidity (IRFCL) yang dikeluarkan oleh IMF bahwa international reserves didefinisikan sebagai seluruh aktiva luar negeri yang dikuasai oleh otoritas moneter dan dapat digunakan setiap waktu guna membiayai ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran atau dalam rangka stabilitas moneter 3. 3 Guidelines for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, IMF, 2001. Sedangkan menurut Salvatore (1996: 513), bahwa international reserves merupakan asset-asset likuid dan berharga tinggi yang dimiliki suatu negara yang nilainya diakui atau diterima oleh masyarakat internasional dan dapat dipakai sebagai alat-alat pembayaran yang sah bagi pemerintah atau negara yang merupakan pemiliknya dalam mengadakan transaksi-transaksi atau pembayaran internasional. Selain untuk tujuan stabilisasi nilai tukar, terkait dengan neraca pembayaran international reserves dapat digunakan untuk membiayai impor dan membayar kewajiban luar negeri. Besar kecilnya akumulasi international reserves suatu negara biasanya ditentukan oleh kegiatan perdagangan (ekspor dan impor) serta arus modal negara tersebut. Kecukupan international reserves ditentukan oleh besarnya kebutuhan impor dan sistem nilai tukar yang digunakan. Dalam sistem nilai tukar yang mengambang bebas, fungsi international reserves adalah untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar hanya terbatas pada tindakan untuk mengurangi fluktuasi nilai tukar yang terlalu tajam. Oleh karena itu, international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak perlu sebesar international reserves yang dibutuhkan apabila negara tersebut mengadopsi sistem nilai tukar tetap. Wujud utama dari international reserves adalah emas, hard currencies yang pada umumnya dalam bentuk empat jenis mata uang utama yang dianggap paling berpengaruh di dunia, yaitu: US dollar, Euro, Poundsterling dan Yen serta surat-surat berharga terbitan IMF yang biasa disebut sebagai Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Penjelasan lebih rinci mengenai komponen international reserves sebagaimana dijelaskan oleh Gandhi (2006: 4). Berkaitan dengan sifat dari rezim nilai tukar (sistem nilai tukar tetap, mengambang dan mengambang terkendali) di negara yang menganut sistem nilai tukar tetap pada umumnya memerlukan international reserves yang besar untuk mempertahankan nilai tukar pada level yang ditetapkan. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh ketakutan negara itu akan ketidakpastian dalam sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas yang diterapkannya. Sehingga, sebagai upaya untuk berjaga√jaga dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukarnya otoritas moneter negara tersebut membutuhkan international reserves dalam jumlah yang dianggap memadai guna stabilisasi nilai tukar. Pada sistem nilai tukar mengambang, terjadinya pergerakan nilai tukar dapat diatasi sendiri oleh mekanisme pasar, sehingga jumlah international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak sebanyak yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu negara dengan sistem nilai tukar tetap yang rigid. Menurut Carbaugh (2004: 516), tujuan utama dari international reserves adalah untuk memfasilitasi pemerintah dalam melakukan intervensi pasar sebagai upaya untuk menstabilkan nilai tukar. Sehingga, suatu negara dengan aktivitas stabilisasi yang aktif memerlukan jumlah international reserves yang besar pula. Keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara tercermin dengan semakin besarnya transaksi perdagangan dan aliran modal antar negara. Semakin terbuka perekonomian suatu negara kebutuhan international reserves-nya cenderung semakin besar guna membiayai transaksi perdagangan. Parameter yang biasa dipakai untuk mengukur kecukupan international reserves sehubungan dengan transaksi perdagangan antar negara adalah marginal propensity to import. Semakin besar angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin besarnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki dan semakin kecil angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin kecilnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki (Gandhi, 2006: 11). Dengan tersedianya international reserves yang mencukupi maka apabila suatu negara mengahadapi kondisi terms of trade yang buruk yang kemudian akan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riilnya maka international reserves dapat berperan sebagai absorber. II.2. Nilai Tukar Perdagangan (Terms of Trade) Terdapat beberapa konsep tentang TOT. Konsep pertama merupakan konsep yang paling umum digunakan, yaitu net barter terms of trade atau juga dapat disebut commodity terms of trade. Net barter terms of trade adalah perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor dengan indeks harga impor. Kenaikan ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam nilai tukar perdagangan, artinya untuk sejumlah tertentu ekspor dapat diperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih banyak dengan melalui hubungan harga (Nopirin, 1995: 71). Forumulasinya dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut: (III.1) Dimana, Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan 100 adalah Indeks tahun dasar. Bila N >100 atau terjadi kenaikan net barter terms of trade maka berarti terjadi perkembangan perdagangan luar negeri yang positif karena dengan nilai ekspor tertentu diperoleh nilai impor yang lebih besar (Hady, 2001:77). Konsep kedua adalah gross barter terms of trade, merupakan perbandingan antara indeks volume impor dengan indeks volume ekspor. Konsep ini menjadi tidak penting karena kurang memberikan gambaran tentang perubahan harga. Oleh karena itu, apabila konsep terms of trade tanpa diberi penjelasan apa-apa maka yang dimaksud adalah konsep net barter terms of trade. Konsep ketiga adalah income terms of trade yang dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut : (III.2) Dimana: N adalah net barter terms of trade; Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan Qx adalah Indeks kuantitas ekspor. Berdasarkan konsep ini, kenaikan income terms of trade menunjukkan bahwa suatu negara dapat memperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih besar dengan dasar kenaikan nilai ekspornya. Bagi negara-negara yang sedang berkembang, selain variabel harga juga sangat penting untuk menilai terms of trade ini dengan mempertimbangkan volume ekspornya karena kenaikan harga ekspor yang tinggi mungkin diimbangi dengan turunnya volume ekspor. Perbaikan TOT dapat timbul sebagai akibat: (1) harga ekspor naik sedang harga impor tetap; (2) harga ekspor tetap sedang harga impor turun; (3) harga ekspor naik dengan proporsi yang lebih besar daripada naiknya harga impor; (4) harga ekspor turun dengan proporsi yang lebih kecil daripada turunnya harga impor. Mekanisme bagaimana TOT dapat berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil adalah dapat dilihat dari sebuah mekanisme sederhana yaitu perbaikan TOT akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk yang berasal dari perdagangan yang selanjutnya dapat mengapresiasi nilai tukar riil dan sebaliknya. Memburuknya TOT akan mengakibatkan permintaan valuta asing meningkat sehingga akan mendepresiasi nilai tukar riil. Terkait dengan jenis produksi yang diperdagangkan, maka secara umum nilai tukar perdagangan komoditi (commodity terms of trade atau net barter terms of trade) negara ­negara berkembang cenderung mengalami kemerosotan dari waktu ke waktu. Salah satu penyebab utamanya adalah sebagian besar atau bahkan semua kenaikan produktivitas yang terjadi di negara-negara maju dialirkan ke para pekerjanya dalam bentuk upah dan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan sebagian besar atau seluruh kenaikan produktivitas yang berlangsung di negara-negara berkembang diwujudkan sebagai harga-harga produk yang lebih murah (Salvatore, 1996 : 431). II.3. Nilai Tukar Riil (Real Exchange Rate) dan Pasar Valas Setiap negara memiliki sebuah mata uang yang menunjukkan harga-harga barang dan jasa. Pengertian nilai tukar valuta asing adalah ≈Exchange rate is the price of one nation »s money in terms of another nation »s money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   ≈The nominal exchange rate is usually called the exchange rateà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  . Menurut definisi tersebut nilai tukar diartikan sebagai harga suatu mata uang terhadap mata uang negara lain. Nilai tukar nominal biasa disebut nilai tukar (exchange rate) (Pugel, 2004). Menurut Mankiw, nilai tukar nominal adalah harga relatif dimana seseorang dapat memperdagangkan mata uang suatu negara dengan mata uang lainnya (Mankiw, 2000: 200). Dengan menggunakan suatu indeks harga untuk Indonesia (P), sebuah indeks harga untuk harga-harga di luar negeri (P*) dan nilai tukar nominal antara rupiah dengan mata uang asing (e), akan dapat diukur nilai tukar riil keseluruhan antara Indonesia dengan negara-negara lain sebagai berikut : Nilai Tukar Riil = (e x P) / P* (III.3) Terdapat paling tidak 3 faktor utama yang mempengaruhi permintaan valuta asing. Pertama, faktor pembayaran impor. Semakin tinggi impor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga nilai tukar akan cenderung melemah. Kedua, faktor aliran modal keluar (capital outflow). Semakin besar aliran modal keluar, maka semakin besar permintaan valuta asing dan pada kelanjutannya akan memperlemah nilai tukar. Aliran modal keluar meliputi pembayaran hutang penduduk Indonesia (baik swasta dan pemerintah) kepada pihak asing dan penempatan dana penduduk Indonesia ke luar negeri. Ketiga , kegiatan spekulasi. Semakin banyak kegiatan spekulasi valuta asing yang dilakukan oleh spekulan, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga memperlemah nilai tukar mata uang lokal terhadap mata uang asing. Sementara itu, penawaran valuta asing dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor utama. Pertama, faktor penerimaan hasil ekspor. Semakin besar volume penerimaan ekspor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar jumlah valuta asing yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara dan pada lanjutannya nilai tukar terhadap mata uang asing cenderung menguat atau apresiasi. Kedua, faktor aliran modal masuk (capital inflow). Semakin besar aliran modal masuk, maka nilai tukar akan cenderung semakin menguat. Aliran modal masuk tersebut dapat berupa penerimaan hutang luar negeri, penempatan dana jangka pendek oleh pihak asing (portofolio investment) dan investasi langsung pihak asing (foreign direct investment) (Simorangkir dan Suseno, 2004: 6). II.4. Financial Deepening Ukuran dari perkembangan intermediasi keuangan biasanya digunakan pengukuran indikator melalui kuantitas, kualitas, dan efisiensi dari jasa intermediasi keuangan (Calderon, 2002:5). Terdapat beberapa indikator untuk mengetahui seberapa besar tingkat perkembangan sektor keuangan salah satu diantaranya adalah rasio antara aset keuangan dalam negeri terhadap GDP (Muklis, 2005: 2). Menurut King dan Levine (1993), ≈Financial deepening means an increase in the money supply of financial assets in the economy, it is important to develop some measures of the widest range of financial assets, including money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   Selain itu, King dan Levine merancang 4 ukuran dalam perhitungan perkembangan sektor keuangan. Pertama, ukuran dari kedalaman sektor keuangan adalah rasio dari kewajiban lancar (liquid liabilities) dari sistem keuangan terhadap GDP. Kewajiban lancar dalam hal ini adalah M3, namun apabila M3 tidak bisa didapatkan maka digunakan M2. Hal ini sejalan dengan IMF dalam database International Financial Statistic dan juga Slangor (1991:11). Kedua , adalah rasio dari deposit money bank domestic asset dibagi dengan deposit money bank domestic asset ditambah dengan central bank domestic asset yang menggambarkan institusi keuangan yang lebih spesifik. Ketiga , rasio kredit dari sektor swasta non keuangan dibagi dengan total kredit domestik. Keempat, adalah rasio kredit sektor swasta non-keuangan dibagi dengan GDP. Dua yang terakhir ini menggambarkan ukuran kuangan sektor dan tingkat pinjaman publik (King dan Levine, 1993: 4). Penggunaan rasio M2 terhadap GDP sebagai indikator financial deepening juga dibenarkan oleh King dan Levine, (1993: 5). Semakin kecil rasio tersebut maka semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara. Suatu negara dikatakan memiliki sektor keuangan yang dalam apabila M2 > 20% dari GDP dan dangkal apabila M2 III. METODOLOGI Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dan merupakan data panel, mencakup periode 2000:Q1 2006:Q4 dan 6 negara yakni Indonesia dan 5 negara mitra dagang utamanya yaitu; Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Hongkong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan. Sumber utama data berasal dari International Financial Statistic yang diterbitkan oleh IMF. Teknik estimasi data panel digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh international reserves yang digunakan dalam rangka stabilisasi nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock. Selain itu model ini juga diperunakan untuk melihat bagaimana peran financial deepening suatu negara dalam stabilisasi nilai tukar ini. Model persamaan yang diestimasi, dikembangkan dari penelitian (Aizenman dan Crichton, 2006), yakni: 1. Model international reserves mitigation terms : (III.4) 2. Model financial deepening mitigation terms : Dimana : RER adalah nilai tukar riil (Real Exchange Rate); ETOT adalah efektifitas nilai tukar perdagangan yang dinilai dari keterbukaan perdagangan (Trade Openness) yang dikalikan dengan nilai tukar perdagangan (Terms of Trade); RES adalah cadangan internasional (International reserves); FD adalah kedalaman sektor keuangan (Financial Deepening); i adalah crossection indentification; t adalah time series identification; ÃŽ µit adalah Koefisien pengganggu (error terms) 4. Varian pertama dari teknik estimasi data panel adalah pendekatan pooled least square (PLS) yang secara sederhana menggabungkan seluruh data time series dan cross section dan kemudian mengestimasi model dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) 5. Pendekatan kedua adalah fixed effect model (FEM) yang memperhitungkan kemungkinan perbedaan intercept antar individu yang ditunjukkan dengan kehadiran ÃŽ ±i pada persamaan (III.6). Secara teknis, model dengan fixed effect menambahkan dummy variables sebanyak N-1 buah ketika terdapat N individu. Pendekatan ketiga adalah random effect model (REM) yang dapat memperbaiki efisiensi proses least square dengan memperhitungkan error dari time series dan cross section. Berbeda dengan FEM, model REM memperlakukan intercept sebagai random variable dengan rata-rata ÃŽ ± dengan stokastik terms ÃŽ µit. Model random effect adalah variasi dari estimasi generalized least square (GLS). Model data panel untuk masing-masing varian teknik tersebut adalah sebagai berikut (Gujarati, 2003: 640): a. Pooled Least Square (III.6) b. Fixed Effect (III.7) c. Random Effect (III.8) Pada dasarnya penggunaan metode data panel memiliki beberapa keunggulan (Widarjono, 2005: 254). Pertama , panel data mampu memperhitungkan heterogenitas individu secara eksplisit dengan mengijinkan variabel spesifik individu. Kemampuan mengontrol heterogenitas 4 Definisi operasional variabel lebih detail dapat dilihat dilampiran IV.A. 5 Lihat: Baltagi, 2002 ; Gujarati, 2003 ; Maddala ; 1993 ; Pindyck dan Rubinfeld, 1998. individu ini pada gilirannya menjadikan data panel dapat digunakan untuk menguji dan membangun model perilaku yang lebih kompleks. Kedua, jika efek spesifik signifikan berkorelasi dengan variabel penjelas lainnya, penggunaan panel data akan mengurangi masalah omitted variables secara substansial. Ketiga , data panel mendasarkan diri pada observasi cross section yang berulang-ulang (time series), sehingga metode data panel cocok untuk digunakan sebagai study of dynamic adjustment. Keempat, tingginya jumlah observasi memiliki implikasi pada data yang lebih informatif, lebih variatif, kolinearitas antar variabel yang semakin berkurang dan peningkatan derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom), sehingga dapat diperoleh hasil estimasi yang lebih efisien. Kelima, data panel dapat digunakan untuk mempelajari model-model perilaku yang kompleks. Keenam, data panel dapat meminimalisir bias yang mungkin ditimbulkan oleh agregasi data individu. Keunggulan-keunggulan tersebut diatas memiliki implikasi pada tidak diperlukannya pengujian asumsi klasik dalam model data panel, sesuai apa yang ada dalam beberapa literatur yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini6. Dalam estimasi selanjutnya sebagai persyaratan estimasi regresi data panel, perlu di pilih penggunaan antara pooled least square, random effect model atau fixed effect model. Ketiga model tersebut akan berbeda dalam intrepetasi selanjutnya sehingga perlu dilakukan pemilihan model untuk memperoleh estimasi yang efisien sesuai dengan penggunaan regresi data panel. Pertama uji statistik F digunakan untuk memilih antara metode PLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Fixed Effect. Kedua uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM) digunakan untuk memilih antara OLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Random Effect. Terakhir , untuk memilih antara Fixed Effect Model (FEM) atau Random Effect Model (REM) digunakan uji yang dikemukakan oleh Hausman. Jika data time series lebih besar dibandingkan data cross section maka teknik efek acak (REM) kurang tepat atau tidak dapat dipakai untuk mengestimasi suatu model (Telisa, 2004:30)7. Dalam model penelitian ini teknik Random Effect Model (REM) tidak dapat digunakan, karena pada penelitian ini jumlah time series (28 time series) lebih besar dibandingkan dengan jumlah cross section (6 cross section). Oleh sebab itu pemilihan teknik estimasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memilih diantara dua teknik estimasi yaitu PLS (Pooled Least Square) atau FEM (Fixed Effect Model). Hasil pengujian menyarankan penggunaan Model Fixed Effect (Unrestricted) dalam penelitian ini. 6 Lihat: Maddala, 1998; Pindyck Rubinfeld, 1991; Greene, 2003; Gujarati, 2003; Widarjono, 2005. 7 Ibid IV. HASIL DAN ANALISA IV.1. Model International Reserves Mitigation Terms Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dalam tabel III.1. koefisien determsinasi model International Reserves Mitigation Terms untuk keseluruhan negara adalah sebesar 0.999602 sedangkan untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara adalah sebesar 0.999845. Artinya variasi variabel independen dalam model tersebut mampu menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen kedua model tersebut masing-masing sebesar 99,96% dan 99,98%. Secara simultan, variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam estimasi keseluruhan maupun estimasi spesifik memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, kondisi tersebut dapat diketahui dari nilai Fyang masing-masing sebesar 57441.05 dan 57032.28. Nilai tersebut melebihi nilai kritis yang dipersyaratkan sesuai dengan F-tabel hingga taraf signifikansi 1%. Dengan demikian nilai F> Fyang berarti H ditolak. Secara parsial sebagaimana terdapat dalam tabel dibawah menunjukkan pengaruh masing-masing variabel bebas yang signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar riil (variabel dependen) pada estimasi secara keseluruhan. Namun untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara hanya variabel effective terms of trade Indonesia, reserves mitigation terms Indonesia, Korea dan Amerika yang signifikan secara statistik mempengaruhi vriabel real exchange rate. Sumber: Hasil pengolahan Keterangan: * = Signifikan 1%; **=Signifikan 5%. Dari estimasi secara keseluruhan dalam tabel diatas terlihat bahwa pengaruh effective terms of trade (ETOT) terhadap real exchange rate (RER) adalah positif. Temuan empiris ini tidak sesuai dengan teori yang digunakan dalam penelitian, yaitu diharapkan bernilai negatif. Dengan asumsi bahwa peningkatan real exchange rate merupakan depresiasi nilai tukar domestik atau apresiasi nilai tukar mitra dagang, maka peningkatan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara terhadap negara-negara mitra dagangnya cenderung meningkatkan (depresiasi) real exchange rate. Rata-rata effective terms of trade keseluruhan negara obyek penelitian adalah 1,82, dengan perubahan pada real exchange rate rata-rata apresiasi sebesar 0,04%. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa elastisitas real exchange rate terhadap effective terms of trade shock ialah kenaikan effective terms of trade sebesar 1% mempengaruhi real exchange rate sebesar 0.28%. Dapat diartikan bahwa perbaikan effective terms of trade akan menyebabkan mata uang luar negeri mengalami apresiasi terhadap mata uang dalam negeri. Kondisi demikian menggambarkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan memiliki sisi negatif yaitu kecenderungan untuk melemahkan nilai tukar suatu negara ketika terjadi penurunan kinerja perekonomian negara mitra dagang tersebut dan dengan dukungan trade openness dan effective terms of trade yang semakin meningkat. Kondisi ini secara aktual dapat digambarkan pada resesi global pada saat ini yang hampir tidak sedikitpun negara yang menuai imbas negatif. Hampir seluruh perekonomian dunia termasuk nilai tukarnya cenderung terdepresiasi dan perekonomian berjalan lambat. Ketidaksesuaian hasil ini dimungkinkan juga dikarenakan kekuatan pasar yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi nilai tukar. Aliran modal jangka pendek, aliran keuangan internasional baik dari pemerintah maupun swasta yang erat kaitannya dengan keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara memungkinkan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil. Besaran (magnitude) effective terms of trade dalam mempengaruhi pasar nilai tukar dapat dikatakan terlalu kecil jika dibandingkan dengan varabel-variabel lain yang berkaitan dengan nilai tukar. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi dapat dikemukakan bahwa peningkatan atau perbaikan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara berdampak pada peningkatan (apresiasi) nilai tukar riil negara lain sebagai mitra dagang utamanya atau penurunan (depresiasi) nilai tukar pada negaranya sendiri. Dapat dikatakan pula bahwa perbaikan yang terjadi pada effective terms of trade suatu negara menguntungkan negara mitra dagangnya dari sisi nilai tukar, namun tidak untuk negaranya sendiri. Hal ini merupakan efek negatif keterbuk Perkembangan Perkembangan CADANGAN DEVISA, FINANCIAL DEEPENING DAN STABILISASI NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH AKIBAT GEJOLAK NILAI TUKAR PERDAGANGAN Abstract These papers analyze the influence of the international reserves and the financial deepening on the real exchange rate stabilization due to the terms of trade shock. The analysis covers 6 countries with quarterly data (Indonesia, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea during the period of 2000.1 to 2006.4). This research utilizes the international reserves mitigation and the financial deepening mitigation model. This result shows that the reserves mitigation terms variable plays important role as the real exchange rate stabilization regarding the terms of trade shock in a common sample, but not in specific country. The mitigation effect associated with international reserves (buffer stock effect) applies only in South Korea. While for United State and Indonesia mitigation effect associated with international reserves opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. Furthermore, the financial deepening mitigation terms variable cannot be treated as the real exchange rate stabilization in a common sample, but not specific country. The mitigation effect associated with financial deepening (shock absorber effect) applies only in United States and Indonesian economic, while for South Korea the mitigation effect associated with the financial deepening works in opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect of financial deepening does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. In Indonesian economic, the financial deepening is more effective than the international reserve to create the real exchange rate stability. The shock absorber effect in Indonesia is more effective than the buffer stock effect to stabilize the real exchange rate due to the terms of trade shock. JEL Classification: E44, F31, F32 Keywords: International reserves, buffer stock, financial deepening, shock absorber, terms of trade shock, real exchange rate. I. PENDAHULUAN Perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia dewasa ini menunjukkan semakin terintegrasi dengan perekonomian dunia. Hal ini merupakan konsekuensi dari dianutnya sistem perekonomian terbuka yang dalam aktivitasnya selalu berhubungan dan tidak lepas dari fenomena hubungan internasional. Adanya keterbukaan perekonomian ini memiliki dampak pada perkembangan neraca pembayaran suatu negara yang meliputi arus perdagangan dan lalu lintas modal terhadap luar negeri suatu negara. Salah satu bentuk aliran modal yang masuk ke dalam negeri yaitu dapat berupa devisa yang berasal dari perdagangan internasional yang dilakukan oleh negara tersebut. Meningkatnya ekspor suatu negara akan membawa keuntungan yaitu kenaikan pendapatan, kenaikan devisa, transfer modal dan makin banyaknya kesempatan kerja. Demikian pula meningkatnya impor suatu negara akan memberikan lebih banyak alternatif barang-barang yang dapat dikonsumsi dan terpenuhinya kebutuhan bahan-bahan baku penolong serta barang modal untuk kebutuhan industri di negara-negara tersebut dan transfer teknologi. Perdagangan internasional akan terjadi pada suatu perbandingan harga tertentu yaitu antara harga ekspor dan harga impor yang sering disebut nilai tukar perdagangan (terms of trade, TOT). Nilai tukar perdagangan besar sekali pengaruhnya terhadap kesejahteraan suatu bangsa dan juga sebagai pengukur posisi perdagangan luar negeri suatu bangsa. TOT yang disimbolkan dengan N dihitung sebagai perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor (Px) dengan indeks harga impor (Pm) atau N = Px/Pm (Nopirin 1992: 71). Kenaikan N menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam Terms of Trade. Perbaikan terms of trade ini dapat timbul sebagai akibat nilai perubahan harga ekspor yang lebih besar realatif terhadap harga impor. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan pendapatan negara tersebut dari perdagangan demikian sebaliknya. Selain mempengaruhi pendapatan negara, pergerakan TOT juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil, (Mankiw, 2000: 195). Upaya untuk mengatasi pengaruh memburuknya terms of trade terhadap nilai tukar ini dapat menggunakan cadangan devisa (international reserves) yang dimiliki negara yang bersangkutan. Hal ini dibuktikan oleh penelitian Aizenman and Crichton (2006), menyebutkan bahwa negara-negara yang mengekspor barang ­barang sumberdaya alam memiliki volatilitas terms of trade yang 3 kali lebih volatil dibandingkan negara-negara yang mengekspor barang manufaktur. Selain besaran pergerakan TOT, volatilitas ini juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil suatu negara Pada dasarnya international reserves berfungsi sebagai buffer stock untuk berjaga-jaga guna menghadapi ketidakpastian keadaan yang akan datang. Sehingga, apabila terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar riil akibat memburuknya terms of trade maka disitulah international reserves berfungsi sebagai penstabil. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk sehingga akan kembali mendorong apresiasi nilai tukar riil. Seperti halnya penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Rajan dan Siregar (2004), diperoleh bahwa reserves merupakan kunci utama dari suatu negara untuk dapat menghindari krisis ekonomi dan keuangan. Terutama bagi negara-negara dengan perekonomian yang terbuka dimana aliran modal internasional adalah volatil atau rentan terhadap terjadinya shock yang merambat dari negara lain (contagion effect). Bahwa dengan melihat pengalaman krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1997, negara yang memiliki reserves yang besar dapat menghindari contagion effect dari krisis dengan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan negara yang memiliki reserves yang kecil. Upaya untuk mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock selain dengan international reserves juga dapat diatasi dengan mengukur financial deepening (kedalaman sektor keuangan) suatu negara. Financial deepening diukur melalui rasio M2 dibagi GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Penggunaan rasio ini dikarenakan merupakan rasio paling umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perkembangan sektor keuangan suatu negara. Hasil rasio ini akan menunjukkan rasio penggunaan M2 untuk menghasilkan setiap GDP. Semakin kecil dalam rasio tersebut menunjukkan semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara dan semakin besar rasio tersebut menunjukkan sektor keuangan negara tersebut semakin dalam. Suatu negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar cederung mengurangi peran international reserves sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil. Hal ini dikarenakan negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar dapat dikatakan telah memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sudah baik sehingga negara tersebut dapat mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock dengan penyesuaian otomatis melalui mekanisme pasar, Aizenman dan Crichton (2006). Karakteristik Indonesia sebagai à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  small open economyà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   yang menganut sistem devisa bebas dan sistem nilai tukar mengambang (free floating) menyebabkan pergerakan nilai tukar di pasar rentan oleh pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non-ekonomi. Untuk mengurangi gejolak nilai tukar yang berlebihan maka pelaksanaan intervensi menjadi sangat penting terutama untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar pada saat tertentu yang benar-benar dibutuhkan agar dapat memberikan kepastian bagi dunia usaha. Salah satu bentuk intervensi itu adalah dengan menggunakan international reserves dan ini sejalan dengan argumentasi Aizenman,dkk (2004) bahwa suatu negara yang menerapkan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas akan cenderung mengurangi permintaan international reserves-nya. Di Indonesia, Bank Indonesia sejauh ini berupaya untuk mengoptimalkan berbagai fasilitas atau insentif agar semakin banyak eksportir yang bersedia menyerahkan devisa hasil ekspornya ke Bank Indonesia (Goeltom dan Zulverdi, 1998). Bahkan dalam masa krisis pasar modal global 2008 ini, Bank Indonesia mewajibkan pengguna valas untuk melaporkan peruntukannya jika melebihi US$10.000 per bulan. Permasalahan mendasar yang diangkat dalam penelitian ini diantaranya: 1) Bagaimanakah pengaruh international reserves dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. 2) Bagaimanakah pengaruh financial deepening dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. Kedua permasalahan tersebut akan dibahas bagaimanakah pengaruhnya di keseluruhan obyek penelitian dan juga secara spesifik setiap Negara untuk memperoleh perbandingan antar Negara, khususnya antara Indonesia dengan Negara-negara mitra dagang utama (Amerika serikat, Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan dan Hongkong). II. TEORI II.1. International Reserves ≈The need of a central bank for international reserves is similar to an individual »s desire to hold cash balances (currency and checkable deposits)à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   (Carbaugh, 2004: 513). Dari pernyataan tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa kebutuhan international reserves bagi suatu negara mempunyai tujuan dan manfaat seperti halnya manfaat kekayaan bagi suatu individu. Motif kepemilikan international reserves dapat disamakan dengan motif seseorang untuk memegang uang yaitu untuk motif transaksi, motif berjaga-jaga dan motif spekulasi. Motif transaksi antara lain untuk membiayai transaksi impor yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka mendukung proses pembangunan, motif berjaga-jaga berkaitan dengan mengelola nilai tukar, serta motif yang ketiga adalah untuk lebih memenuhi kebutuhan diversifikasi kekayaan (memperoleh return dari kegiatan investasi dengan international reserves (Gandhi, 2006: 1). Jhingan (2001) menyatakan bahwa ≈International liquidity (generally used as a synonym for international reserves) is defined as the aggregate stock of internally acceptable assets held by the central bank to settle a deficit in a country »s balance of payments. International reserves merupakan asset dari bank sentral yang dipergunakan untuk mengatasi ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran. Definisi tersebut senada dengan konsep International Reserves and Foreign Currency Lliquidity (IRFCL) yang dikeluarkan oleh IMF bahwa international reserves didefinisikan sebagai seluruh aktiva luar negeri yang dikuasai oleh otoritas moneter dan dapat digunakan setiap waktu guna membiayai ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran atau dalam rangka stabilitas moneter 3. 3 Guidelines for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, IMF, 2001. Sedangkan menurut Salvatore (1996: 513), bahwa international reserves merupakan asset-asset likuid dan berharga tinggi yang dimiliki suatu negara yang nilainya diakui atau diterima oleh masyarakat internasional dan dapat dipakai sebagai alat-alat pembayaran yang sah bagi pemerintah atau negara yang merupakan pemiliknya dalam mengadakan transaksi-transaksi atau pembayaran internasional. Selain untuk tujuan stabilisasi nilai tukar, terkait dengan neraca pembayaran international reserves dapat digunakan untuk membiayai impor dan membayar kewajiban luar negeri. Besar kecilnya akumulasi international reserves suatu negara biasanya ditentukan oleh kegiatan perdagangan (ekspor dan impor) serta arus modal negara tersebut. Kecukupan international reserves ditentukan oleh besarnya kebutuhan impor dan sistem nilai tukar yang digunakan. Dalam sistem nilai tukar yang mengambang bebas, fungsi international reserves adalah untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar hanya terbatas pada tindakan untuk mengurangi fluktuasi nilai tukar yang terlalu tajam. Oleh karena itu, international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak perlu sebesar international reserves yang dibutuhkan apabila negara tersebut mengadopsi sistem nilai tukar tetap. Wujud utama dari international reserves adalah emas, hard currencies yang pada umumnya dalam bentuk empat jenis mata uang utama yang dianggap paling berpengaruh di dunia, yaitu: US dollar, Euro, Poundsterling dan Yen serta surat-surat berharga terbitan IMF yang biasa disebut sebagai Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Penjelasan lebih rinci mengenai komponen international reserves sebagaimana dijelaskan oleh Gandhi (2006: 4). Berkaitan dengan sifat dari rezim nilai tukar (sistem nilai tukar tetap, mengambang dan mengambang terkendali) di negara yang menganut sistem nilai tukar tetap pada umumnya memerlukan international reserves yang besar untuk mempertahankan nilai tukar pada level yang ditetapkan. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh ketakutan negara itu akan ketidakpastian dalam sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas yang diterapkannya. Sehingga, sebagai upaya untuk berjaga√jaga dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukarnya otoritas moneter negara tersebut membutuhkan international reserves dalam jumlah yang dianggap memadai guna stabilisasi nilai tukar. Pada sistem nilai tukar mengambang, terjadinya pergerakan nilai tukar dapat diatasi sendiri oleh mekanisme pasar, sehingga jumlah international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak sebanyak yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu negara dengan sistem nilai tukar tetap yang rigid. Menurut Carbaugh (2004: 516), tujuan utama dari international reserves adalah untuk memfasilitasi pemerintah dalam melakukan intervensi pasar sebagai upaya untuk menstabilkan nilai tukar. Sehingga, suatu negara dengan aktivitas stabilisasi yang aktif memerlukan jumlah international reserves yang besar pula. Keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara tercermin dengan semakin besarnya transaksi perdagangan dan aliran modal antar negara. Semakin terbuka perekonomian suatu negara kebutuhan international reserves-nya cenderung semakin besar guna membiayai transaksi perdagangan. Parameter yang biasa dipakai untuk mengukur kecukupan international reserves sehubungan dengan transaksi perdagangan antar negara adalah marginal propensity to import. Semakin besar angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin besarnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki dan semakin kecil angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin kecilnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki (Gandhi, 2006: 11). Dengan tersedianya international reserves yang mencukupi maka apabila suatu negara mengahadapi kondisi terms of trade yang buruk yang kemudian akan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riilnya maka international reserves dapat berperan sebagai absorber. II.2. Nilai Tukar Perdagangan (Terms of Trade) Terdapat beberapa konsep tentang TOT. Konsep pertama merupakan konsep yang paling umum digunakan, yaitu net barter terms of trade atau juga dapat disebut commodity terms of trade. Net barter terms of trade adalah perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor dengan indeks harga impor. Kenaikan ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam nilai tukar perdagangan, artinya untuk sejumlah tertentu ekspor dapat diperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih banyak dengan melalui hubungan harga (Nopirin, 1995: 71). Forumulasinya dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut: (III.1) Dimana, Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan 100 adalah Indeks tahun dasar. Bila N >100 atau terjadi kenaikan net barter terms of trade maka berarti terjadi perkembangan perdagangan luar negeri yang positif karena dengan nilai ekspor tertentu diperoleh nilai impor yang lebih besar (Hady, 2001:77). Konsep kedua adalah gross barter terms of trade, merupakan perbandingan antara indeks volume impor dengan indeks volume ekspor. Konsep ini menjadi tidak penting karena kurang memberikan gambaran tentang perubahan harga. Oleh karena itu, apabila konsep terms of trade tanpa diberi penjelasan apa-apa maka yang dimaksud adalah konsep net barter terms of trade. Konsep ketiga adalah income terms of trade yang dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut : (III.2) Dimana: N adalah net barter terms of trade; Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan Qx adalah Indeks kuantitas ekspor. Berdasarkan konsep ini, kenaikan income terms of trade menunjukkan bahwa suatu negara dapat memperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih besar dengan dasar kenaikan nilai ekspornya. Bagi negara-negara yang sedang berkembang, selain variabel harga juga sangat penting untuk menilai terms of trade ini dengan mempertimbangkan volume ekspornya karena kenaikan harga ekspor yang tinggi mungkin diimbangi dengan turunnya volume ekspor. Perbaikan TOT dapat timbul sebagai akibat: (1) harga ekspor naik sedang harga impor tetap; (2) harga ekspor tetap sedang harga impor turun; (3) harga ekspor naik dengan proporsi yang lebih besar daripada naiknya harga impor; (4) harga ekspor turun dengan proporsi yang lebih kecil daripada turunnya harga impor. Mekanisme bagaimana TOT dapat berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil adalah dapat dilihat dari sebuah mekanisme sederhana yaitu perbaikan TOT akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk yang berasal dari perdagangan yang selanjutnya dapat mengapresiasi nilai tukar riil dan sebaliknya. Memburuknya TOT akan mengakibatkan permintaan valuta asing meningkat sehingga akan mendepresiasi nilai tukar riil. Terkait dengan jenis produksi yang diperdagangkan, maka secara umum nilai tukar perdagangan komoditi (commodity terms of trade atau net barter terms of trade) negara ­negara berkembang cenderung mengalami kemerosotan dari waktu ke waktu. Salah satu penyebab utamanya adalah sebagian besar atau bahkan semua kenaikan produktivitas yang terjadi di negara-negara maju dialirkan ke para pekerjanya dalam bentuk upah dan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan sebagian besar atau seluruh kenaikan produktivitas yang berlangsung di negara-negara berkembang diwujudkan sebagai harga-harga produk yang lebih murah (Salvatore, 1996 : 431). II.3. Nilai Tukar Riil (Real Exchange Rate) dan Pasar Valas Setiap negara memiliki sebuah mata uang yang menunjukkan harga-harga barang dan jasa. Pengertian nilai tukar valuta asing adalah ≈Exchange rate is the price of one nation »s money in terms of another nation »s money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   ≈The nominal exchange rate is usually called the exchange rateà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  . Menurut definisi tersebut nilai tukar diartikan sebagai harga suatu mata uang terhadap mata uang negara lain. Nilai tukar nominal biasa disebut nilai tukar (exchange rate) (Pugel, 2004). Menurut Mankiw, nilai tukar nominal adalah harga relatif dimana seseorang dapat memperdagangkan mata uang suatu negara dengan mata uang lainnya (Mankiw, 2000: 200). Dengan menggunakan suatu indeks harga untuk Indonesia (P), sebuah indeks harga untuk harga-harga di luar negeri (P*) dan nilai tukar nominal antara rupiah dengan mata uang asing (e), akan dapat diukur nilai tukar riil keseluruhan antara Indonesia dengan negara-negara lain sebagai berikut : Nilai Tukar Riil = (e x P) / P* (III.3) Terdapat paling tidak 3 faktor utama yang mempengaruhi permintaan valuta asing. Pertama, faktor pembayaran impor. Semakin tinggi impor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga nilai tukar akan cenderung melemah. Kedua, faktor aliran modal keluar (capital outflow). Semakin besar aliran modal keluar, maka semakin besar permintaan valuta asing dan pada kelanjutannya akan memperlemah nilai tukar. Aliran modal keluar meliputi pembayaran hutang penduduk Indonesia (baik swasta dan pemerintah) kepada pihak asing dan penempatan dana penduduk Indonesia ke luar negeri. Ketiga , kegiatan spekulasi. Semakin banyak kegiatan spekulasi valuta asing yang dilakukan oleh spekulan, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga memperlemah nilai tukar mata uang lokal terhadap mata uang asing. Sementara itu, penawaran valuta asing dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor utama. Pertama, faktor penerimaan hasil ekspor. Semakin besar volume penerimaan ekspor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar jumlah valuta asing yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara dan pada lanjutannya nilai tukar terhadap mata uang asing cenderung menguat atau apresiasi. Kedua, faktor aliran modal masuk (capital inflow). Semakin besar aliran modal masuk, maka nilai tukar akan cenderung semakin menguat. Aliran modal masuk tersebut dapat berupa penerimaan hutang luar negeri, penempatan dana jangka pendek oleh pihak asing (portofolio investment) dan investasi langsung pihak asing (foreign direct investment) (Simorangkir dan Suseno, 2004: 6). II.4. Financial Deepening Ukuran dari perkembangan intermediasi keuangan biasanya digunakan pengukuran indikator melalui kuantitas, kualitas, dan efisiensi dari jasa intermediasi keuangan (Calderon, 2002:5). Terdapat beberapa indikator untuk mengetahui seberapa besar tingkat perkembangan sektor keuangan salah satu diantaranya adalah rasio antara aset keuangan dalam negeri terhadap GDP (Muklis, 2005: 2). Menurut King dan Levine (1993), ≈Financial deepening means an increase in the money supply of financial assets in the economy, it is important to develop some measures of the widest range of financial assets, including money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   Selain itu, King dan Levine merancang 4 ukuran dalam perhitungan perkembangan sektor keuangan. Pertama, ukuran dari kedalaman sektor keuangan adalah rasio dari kewajiban lancar (liquid liabilities) dari sistem keuangan terhadap GDP. Kewajiban lancar dalam hal ini adalah M3, namun apabila M3 tidak bisa didapatkan maka digunakan M2. Hal ini sejalan dengan IMF dalam database International Financial Statistic dan juga Slangor (1991:11). Kedua , adalah rasio dari deposit money bank domestic asset dibagi dengan deposit money bank domestic asset ditambah dengan central bank domestic asset yang menggambarkan institusi keuangan yang lebih spesifik. Ketiga , rasio kredit dari sektor swasta non keuangan dibagi dengan total kredit domestik. Keempat, adalah rasio kredit sektor swasta non-keuangan dibagi dengan GDP. Dua yang terakhir ini menggambarkan ukuran kuangan sektor dan tingkat pinjaman publik (King dan Levine, 1993: 4). Penggunaan rasio M2 terhadap GDP sebagai indikator financial deepening juga dibenarkan oleh King dan Levine, (1993: 5). Semakin kecil rasio tersebut maka semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara. Suatu negara dikatakan memiliki sektor keuangan yang dalam apabila M2 > 20% dari GDP dan dangkal apabila M2 III. METODOLOGI Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dan merupakan data panel, mencakup periode 2000:Q1 2006:Q4 dan 6 negara yakni Indonesia dan 5 negara mitra dagang utamanya yaitu; Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Hongkong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan. Sumber utama data berasal dari International Financial Statistic yang diterbitkan oleh IMF. Teknik estimasi data panel digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh international reserves yang digunakan dalam rangka stabilisasi nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock. Selain itu model ini juga diperunakan untuk melihat bagaimana peran financial deepening suatu negara dalam stabilisasi nilai tukar ini. Model persamaan yang diestimasi, dikembangkan dari penelitian (Aizenman dan Crichton, 2006), yakni: 1. Model international reserves mitigation terms : (III.4) 2. Model financial deepening mitigation terms : Dimana : RER adalah nilai tukar riil (Real Exchange Rate); ETOT adalah efektifitas nilai tukar perdagangan yang dinilai dari keterbukaan perdagangan (Trade Openness) yang dikalikan dengan nilai tukar perdagangan (Terms of Trade); RES adalah cadangan internasional (International reserves); FD adalah kedalaman sektor keuangan (Financial Deepening); i adalah crossection indentification; t adalah time series identification; ÃŽ µit adalah Koefisien pengganggu (error terms) 4. Varian pertama dari teknik estimasi data panel adalah pendekatan pooled least square (PLS) yang secara sederhana menggabungkan seluruh data time series dan cross section dan kemudian mengestimasi model dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) 5. Pendekatan kedua adalah fixed effect model (FEM) yang memperhitungkan kemungkinan perbedaan intercept antar individu yang ditunjukkan dengan kehadiran ÃŽ ±i pada persamaan (III.6). Secara teknis, model dengan fixed effect menambahkan dummy variables sebanyak N-1 buah ketika terdapat N individu. Pendekatan ketiga adalah random effect model (REM) yang dapat memperbaiki efisiensi proses least square dengan memperhitungkan error dari time series dan cross section. Berbeda dengan FEM, model REM memperlakukan intercept sebagai random variable dengan rata-rata ÃŽ ± dengan stokastik terms ÃŽ µit. Model random effect adalah variasi dari estimasi generalized least square (GLS). Model data panel untuk masing-masing varian teknik tersebut adalah sebagai berikut (Gujarati, 2003: 640): a. Pooled Least Square (III.6) b. Fixed Effect (III.7) c. Random Effect (III.8) Pada dasarnya penggunaan metode data panel memiliki beberapa keunggulan (Widarjono, 2005: 254). Pertama , panel data mampu memperhitungkan heterogenitas individu secara eksplisit dengan mengijinkan variabel spesifik individu. Kemampuan mengontrol heterogenitas 4 Definisi operasional variabel lebih detail dapat dilihat dilampiran IV.A. 5 Lihat: Baltagi, 2002 ; Gujarati, 2003 ; Maddala ; 1993 ; Pindyck dan Rubinfeld, 1998. individu ini pada gilirannya menjadikan data panel dapat digunakan untuk menguji dan membangun model perilaku yang lebih kompleks. Kedua, jika efek spesifik signifikan berkorelasi dengan variabel penjelas lainnya, penggunaan panel data akan mengurangi masalah omitted variables secara substansial. Ketiga , data panel mendasarkan diri pada observasi cross section yang berulang-ulang (time series), sehingga metode data panel cocok untuk digunakan sebagai study of dynamic adjustment. Keempat, tingginya jumlah observasi memiliki implikasi pada data yang lebih informatif, lebih variatif, kolinearitas antar variabel yang semakin berkurang dan peningkatan derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom), sehingga dapat diperoleh hasil estimasi yang lebih efisien. Kelima, data panel dapat digunakan untuk mempelajari model-model perilaku yang kompleks. Keenam, data panel dapat meminimalisir bias yang mungkin ditimbulkan oleh agregasi data individu. Keunggulan-keunggulan tersebut diatas memiliki implikasi pada tidak diperlukannya pengujian asumsi klasik dalam model data panel, sesuai apa yang ada dalam beberapa literatur yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini6. Dalam estimasi selanjutnya sebagai persyaratan estimasi regresi data panel, perlu di pilih penggunaan antara pooled least square, random effect model atau fixed effect model. Ketiga model tersebut akan berbeda dalam intrepetasi selanjutnya sehingga perlu dilakukan pemilihan model untuk memperoleh estimasi yang efisien sesuai dengan penggunaan regresi data panel. Pertama uji statistik F digunakan untuk memilih antara metode PLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Fixed Effect. Kedua uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM) digunakan untuk memilih antara OLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Random Effect. Terakhir , untuk memilih antara Fixed Effect Model (FEM) atau Random Effect Model (REM) digunakan uji yang dikemukakan oleh Hausman. Jika data time series lebih besar dibandingkan data cross section maka teknik efek acak (REM) kurang tepat atau tidak dapat dipakai untuk mengestimasi suatu model (Telisa, 2004:30)7. Dalam model penelitian ini teknik Random Effect Model (REM) tidak dapat digunakan, karena pada penelitian ini jumlah time series (28 time series) lebih besar dibandingkan dengan jumlah cross section (6 cross section). Oleh sebab itu pemilihan teknik estimasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memilih diantara dua teknik estimasi yaitu PLS (Pooled Least Square) atau FEM (Fixed Effect Model). Hasil pengujian menyarankan penggunaan Model Fixed Effect (Unrestricted) dalam penelitian ini. 6 Lihat: Maddala, 1998; Pindyck Rubinfeld, 1991; Greene, 2003; Gujarati, 2003; Widarjono, 2005. 7 Ibid IV. HASIL DAN ANALISA IV.1. Model International Reserves Mitigation Terms Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dalam tabel III.1. koefisien determsinasi model International Reserves Mitigation Terms untuk keseluruhan negara adalah sebesar 0.999602 sedangkan untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara adalah sebesar 0.999845. Artinya variasi variabel independen dalam model tersebut mampu menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen kedua model tersebut masing-masing sebesar 99,96% dan 99,98%. Secara simultan, variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam estimasi keseluruhan maupun estimasi spesifik memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, kondisi tersebut dapat diketahui dari nilai Fyang masing-masing sebesar 57441.05 dan 57032.28. Nilai tersebut melebihi nilai kritis yang dipersyaratkan sesuai dengan F-tabel hingga taraf signifikansi 1%. Dengan demikian nilai F> Fyang berarti H ditolak. Secara parsial sebagaimana terdapat dalam tabel dibawah menunjukkan pengaruh masing-masing variabel bebas yang signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar riil (variabel dependen) pada estimasi secara keseluruhan. Namun untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara hanya variabel effective terms of trade Indonesia, reserves mitigation terms Indonesia, Korea dan Amerika yang signifikan secara statistik mempengaruhi vriabel real exchange rate. Sumber: Hasil pengolahan Keterangan: * = Signifikan 1%; **=Signifikan 5%. Dari estimasi secara keseluruhan dalam tabel diatas terlihat bahwa pengaruh effective terms of trade (ETOT) terhadap real exchange rate (RER) adalah positif. Temuan empiris ini tidak sesuai dengan teori yang digunakan dalam penelitian, yaitu diharapkan bernilai negatif. Dengan asumsi bahwa peningkatan real exchange rate merupakan depresiasi nilai tukar domestik atau apresiasi nilai tukar mitra dagang, maka peningkatan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara terhadap negara-negara mitra dagangnya cenderung meningkatkan (depresiasi) real exchange rate. Rata-rata effective terms of trade keseluruhan negara obyek penelitian adalah 1,82, dengan perubahan pada real exchange rate rata-rata apresiasi sebesar 0,04%. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa elastisitas real exchange rate terhadap effective terms of trade shock ialah kenaikan effective terms of trade sebesar 1% mempengaruhi real exchange rate sebesar 0.28%. Dapat diartikan bahwa perbaikan effective terms of trade akan menyebabkan mata uang luar negeri mengalami apresiasi terhadap mata uang dalam negeri. Kondisi demikian menggambarkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan memiliki sisi negatif yaitu kecenderungan untuk melemahkan nilai tukar suatu negara ketika terjadi penurunan kinerja perekonomian negara mitra dagang tersebut dan dengan dukungan trade openness dan effective terms of trade yang semakin meningkat. Kondisi ini secara aktual dapat digambarkan pada resesi global pada saat ini yang hampir tidak sedikitpun negara yang menuai imbas negatif. Hampir seluruh perekonomian dunia termasuk nilai tukarnya cenderung terdepresiasi dan perekonomian berjalan lambat. Ketidaksesuaian hasil ini dimungkinkan juga dikarenakan kekuatan pasar yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi nilai tukar. Aliran modal jangka pendek, aliran keuangan internasional baik dari pemerintah maupun swasta yang erat kaitannya dengan keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara memungkinkan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil. Besaran (magnitude) effective terms of trade dalam mempengaruhi pasar nilai tukar dapat dikatakan terlalu kecil jika dibandingkan dengan varabel-variabel lain yang berkaitan dengan nilai tukar. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi dapat dikemukakan bahwa peningkatan atau perbaikan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara berdampak pada peningkatan (apresiasi) nilai tukar riil negara lain sebagai mitra dagang utamanya atau penurunan (depresiasi) nilai tukar pada negaranya sendiri. Dapat dikatakan pula bahwa perbaikan yang terjadi pada effective terms of trade suatu negara menguntungkan negara mitra dagangnya dari sisi nilai tukar, namun tidak untuk negaranya sendiri. Hal ini merupakan efek negatif keterbuk